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Trading Digest 2-25-2008
FS STI : 3,064.95 ( +16.31 )
. Biosensors Update:
Feb 14 : $0.83, Target $0.95
Feb 25 : $ 0.89 ( intra-day high $0.91 )
Parabolic SAR buy phrase triggered.
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Stock Watch: Allco
Both the daily and weekly chart are looking good. Feb 25 closed $0.86, Near term target $0.95
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S'pore Jan CPI Jumps 6.6% (BT)
SINGAPORE - Singapore's consumer prices rose 6.6 per cent in January from a year earlier, government data showed on Monday, as high food, transport and housing costs kept annual inflation at a 25-year high.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 2-22-2008
FS STI : 3,048.64 ( -6.17 )
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 2-21-2008
FS STI : 3,054.81 ( +27.98 )
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 2-20-2008
FS STI : 3,026.83 ( -71.23 ) 
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Like the article from Straits Times Money page pointed today, the volume of FS STI has been dropping amidst rising prices over the past few sessions. I have observed the same and think that this is not very healthy. Yet to tell if today is a profit taking day or a u-turn from the recent rebound ! According to DJ, the decline in Asia is lead by poor sentiment in Japan Nikkie.
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I am trying to use my imagination when looking at the chart. Can there be an A-Triangle forming? It is really too early to tell as the Apex stretches up to end April and we are less than halfway now. I do hope this can come true though ! I can't wait for the A-Triangle to breakout. Anyway, this is my own speculation based on the tiny clue I can get from the chart. Any time, the chart can prove me wrong. But end April breakout and resuming the uptrend tally with my earler estimation of when the market will bottom based on the behavior of Parabolic SAR in the monthly chart.
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0724 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore-listed Chinese companies, or S-shares, down sharply as profit-taking kicks in after recent rebound; FTSE ST China index down 5.5% at 563.56 vs FTSE ST All Share down 2.1%. "The China plays have seen some of the biggest share price rises in the last few days; now they're giving that up," says trader at local brokerage. Adds investors already fearful of high inflation in China, oil price spike may be adding to those concerns. Big S-share losers include Synear Foods (Z75.SG) down 10.3% at S$1.05; China Hongxing Sports (BR9.SG) down 7.7% at S$0.66; Cosco Corp. (F83.SG) down 7.3% at S$4.29. (KIG)
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 2-19-2008
FS STI : 3,098.06 ( +14.72 )
For most of today, FS STI was above 3,100. Level to watch is 3,180 (preferably 3,200). At this level, FS STI would have scored a higher high ( higher low was scored on Feb 11 ). 3,200 also will break the downtrend trendline. But for FS STI to be out of the wood, it needs to stay above the 250 days moving average, which is the bull/bear dividing line.
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0653 GMT [Dow Jones] Delong Holdings (B1N.SG) +18% at S$3.56 after trading halt lifted following announcement of S$3.9459/share bid from Russia's Evraz Group. "This seems to be a good price and the right size bite for Evraz," says CIMB analyst Lawrence Lye; adds offer is close to stock's all-time high of S$4.02 hit last July. News of bid offsets any disappointment over trading update, issued at midday break, which says profit after tax for FY07 will be lower due to rising raw material prices, weak USD. Shares now trading at 10% discount to offer price, gap may narrow as conditions met for offer to proceed.(KIG)
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Biosensors Update: Closed at 0.87 ( intrad-day high at 0.89 )
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Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 2-18-2008
FS STI : 3,083.34 ( -5.34 )
0819 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore-listed China plays, or S-shares, outperforming as investors seek out bargains. "The S-shares were battered down more than most, so value is emerging," says analyst at foreign brokerage. DBS Vickers strategist Yeo Kee Yan says in note recovery in Chinese equity market should boost S-shares. "We believe that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) has the potential to rebound further.
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Biosensors Update:
Feb 14 ( where I started to monitor : .83 )
Today Closed at .86 ( intra-day high .875 )
The chart still look good !
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Basic 6 - Candlesticks
Candlestick basic can be found HERE.I am documenting only a few formations for my easy reference as I revised this topic. There are hundreds of formations. Candlesick patterns should be used in conjunction with other technical indicators as a confirmation. Candlestick alone is not fool proof especially with the market size and liquidaty we have in STI.
Example:
Candlestick + Channel support/resistance
Channel support + bullish candlestick formation = buy
Channel resistance + bearish candlestick formation = sell
Other combination of use can be Candlestick + RSI, Candlestick + MACD...etc.
Hammers (Takuri) and Hanging Men (Kubitsuri)
Both the Hammers and Hanging Men share the same shape. The wicks must be at least twice the height of the real body. The color of the body is not important. In an uptrend, such candle is called a "hanging man". In a downtrend, the same candle is called a "hammer".
If a hanging man appears after a prolonged upmove, especially if it ocurrs after a gap. It may signal a trend reversal ( bearish ). If a hammer is identified after a prolonged downmove. It may signal a trend reversal ( bullish ).
Inverted Hammer (Bullish)
A one day bullish reversal pattern.
Tweezer Tops and Bottoms (Kenuki)
Tweezer bottom occurs when, after a delcine, two or more candles made an identical low. If the 2nd candle ( or 3rd candle ) is a hammer, this is an added evidence of a possible trend reversal.
Tweezer Top ( bearish ) consist of two or more candles with identical high. The "high" can be real body or wick ( shadow ). This pattern is short-term bearish formation. If the 2nd candle ( or 3rd candle ) is a hanging man, this is an added evidence of a possible trend reversal.
Harami A small real-body candlestick that comes after a bigger one is called a Harami. A harami implies that a change in sentiment is impending. Harami is a two bars formation, it does not stand alone. The wick ( shadow ) of the 2nd candle does not necessary need to be within the 1st ( larger ) candle. The harami candle can be white, black or doji. The smaller the real body of the 2nd candle, the more powerful the implication of a reversal is impending.
Bullish Counterattack line ( Deai Sen )
A bullish counterattack line develops when, after a decline, a black candle is followed by a white candle and both close or "meet" at the same level.
Bearish Counterattack line ( Gyakushu Sen )
A bearish counterattack or meeting line is formed when, after an advance, a white candle is followed by a black candle and both close at the same level.
Labels: Trading Basic
Trading Digest 2-15-2008 (Budget Day)
FS STI : 3,088.68 ( +43.09 )
The closing today is not unexpected on a Budget Day. This is consistent with any year on the same day. No tax cut as DBSV predicted but 20% tax rebate instead. ........................................................................................................................
In line with what I have posted on Feb 5, 2008 "Are Analyst's Report Useful?". Here are humongous cut on various counters by Citibank. I wonder has anyone who bought based on Citi's original target manage to make any money before they realize the target has now dropped. So the next time when the bull run resume when analysts started to up the target, don't rush in as if what they say is guarantee. 
DJ MARKET TALK: Citi Warns STI Could Hit 2700; Cuts Targets
0234 GMT [Dow Jones] Citigroup cuts Singapore corporates' target prices, warns STI could hit 2700 before recovering. Says stock market weakness could persist for some time; "a history of past pullbacks in the market which were accompanied by an economic slowdown shows that the Singapore market consolidated for at least a year." Advises investors to stay defensive, focus on earnings visibility, sensible valuations, attractive dividend yields. Blue-chip target price cuts as follows: CapitaLand (C31.SG) cut to S$5.44 from S$7.00, CapitaMall Trust (C38U.SG) cut to S$3.67 from S$3.97, City Developments (C09.SG) cut to S$13.41 from S$15.90, DBS (D05.SG) cut to S$18.10 from S$25.50, OCBC (O39.SG) cut to S$8.00 from S$9.75, SGX (S68.SG) cut to S$6.45 from S$11.22; SIA Engineering (S59.SG) cut to S$4.97 from S$5.78; UOB (U11.SG) cut to S$18.10 from S$24.00.(KIG) .........................................................................................................................
DJ MARKET TALK: Singapore Personal Incomes Taxes Likely Cut - DBS
0147 GMT [Dow Jones] DBS expects Singapore's budget today to focus on helping lower income groups cope with higher inflation, enhance economy's competitiveness. Says key measure probably will be personal income tax cuts to make Singapore more attractive location for top foreign talent, also help alleviate rising costs for middle income groups. Says for lower income group which pays no income tax, budget to be spiced substantially with inflation-offsetting measures such as utility rebates, other social assistance schemes. Doesn't expect cut in corporate taxes though government may announce rebates to lower business costs, especially for small, medium-sized enterprises. (CNG)
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 2-14-2008
STI : 3,045.59 ( +96.05 )
Asian bourses ended sharply higher today taken the cue from Dow's overnight gain by 178.83 ( 12,552.24 ) on better than expected retail sales data.
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It has been a while I have not posted any chart. I thought this chart is interesting as it depicts the power of chart formation in Technical Analysis. When a D-Triangle was broken, the prices simply pierce thru' the triangle and drop down to hell. Very roughly, the breakdown is about 600 points ( 3900 - 3300 ) which should have completed on Jan 22 when FS STI dived to 2,746 ( 3300 - 2750 ). This chart can be a typical teaching material for any TA trainer to demonstrate the power of chart formation!
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Stock Watch: Biosensor ( closed .83, target .95, cut loss .80* )
* cut loss revised to .80
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Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 2-13-2008
FS STI : 2,949.54 ( +23.31 )Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 2-12-2008
FS STI : 2,926.23 ( +57.94 )
So, the year of Rat did not kick start the market in a positive manner. FS STI was downed by 63.68 points yesterday to 2,868.29. The daily, weekly & monthly charts of FS STI are all bearish. Based on Parabolic SAR, my guess is that it may be at least 2 ~ 3 months before FS STI hits the bottom. DBSV is looking at 2,600+ whereas The Edge is looking at 2,100+.
DBSV believes the forthcoming budget on 2/15 is pro-individual. Probably 2% cut in personal income tax. Unlike a pro-business budget, the market maybe muted on the budget annourced.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 2-6-2008 (CNY Eve)
STI : 2,932.02 ( -106.4 )
Wall Street plunged Tuesday, driving the Dow Jones industrials down 370 points after investors saw an unexpected contraction in the service sector as evidence the economy is sinking into recession.
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DJ MARKET TALK: STI End Wed Down 3.5% At 2932.02 On Econ Woes
0453 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore shares end final trading day of the week sharply lower, amid absence of many traders due to Chinese New Year break, as investors spooked by heightened concerns of U.S. recession following weak U.S. ISM data overnight. STI down 3.5% at 2932.02 midday, with most components weaker, after lingering in tight 2917-2954 range for most part of morning. Index down 4.7% for the week. DBS Vickers says market should watch for more U.S. economic data for clearer outlook; "this worry is not new because the recent selldown to 2746 (Jan. 22) was also already driven by a '1Q recession scenario' in the U.S. If the historic drop in the ISM survey is reflected in other upcoming data, the Fed would not wait that long to cut rates." Suggests investors hold on, even add new positions if market falls further going forward "because we continue to see the index heading back towards 3300 once the correction ends." Overall market volume thin, with 452 decliners vs 192 gainers. (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 05, 2008 23:53 ET (04:53 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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So, Chinese New Year rally is not a must and one should not take it for granted.
Labels: Trading Digest
Are Analyst's Reports Useful?
Do we really need analyst's reports & their buy calls? If you answer "yes", think twice! How many time have you been played out by analyst when you follow their buy call? When a stock rally and rally, all of them start to issue buy call and they set the target to the sky giving you hope it will rally even higher. However, when the stock refuse to hit higher, they immediately downgrade it and trim the target. They can half the target within a matter of two months! If you follow their initial buy call, you will be stuck !
-Look at Synear below:
On December 4, 2007, CLSA issued a buy call on Synear with a target of $2.97 (Price then was $1.75). On January 31, 2008, it downgraded Synear to Outperform from Buy and cut its target to $1.34. The fundamental of the company cannot be changed in a matter of two months right? Did they miss out something when they suggested a target of $2.97 or were they just like us a price lagging crowd attaching their "target" based on the current price movement rather than based on the company's fundamental, business model, orderbook, business outlook...etc.? They are supposed to be the expert giving us guidence and advice on which counter can we park our money prudently and not "落井下石" (dropping a rock into the well where we are trapped). Given what they are doing (attaching a target to the current price movement or trim it to half), I guess I can be an analyst too! Their target can swing from +69% to -30%. How scary !!
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DJ MARKET TALK: CLSA Cuts Synear Food To Outperform From Buy
0639 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CLSA downgrades Synear Food (Z75.SG) to Outperform from Buy, cuts target price to S$1.34 from S$2.97. Broker says in note, rating cut reflects cautious view on impact of China price controls; "we turn conservative and remove any assumption of average selling price growth in the light of continuing increase in food inflation and China's effort to rein it in." Reduces FY08 expected production volume due to lower-than-expected utilization rate in company's Chengdu plant, assumes continued cost increases for raw materials such as pork, flour, sugar this year. Shares currently down 3.3% at S$1.16. (KIG)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 31, 2008 01:39 ET (06:39 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Labels: Trading Digest
Allco Update
Growing from within ( DBSV Feb 4, 2008 )
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Story: Allco reported a good set of FY07 results that are slightly above our expectations, gross revenues increased 115.7% yoy to S$75.2m. Net property income gained 113.6% yoy to S$61.4. DPU was 6.73 cts, +46.9% yoy.
Point: The results are mainly due to positive rental reversions from its assets in FY07 and contributions from its new acquisitions. Of the total increase in gross revenues, 59% was organic in nature. Moving forward, we expect growth to be more organic as Allco look to benefit from the buoyant demand for office in Singapore with 31% and 15.3% of its NLA expiring in FY08 and FY09. In addition, we expect contributions in FY08 from its withdrawal of 17.2% stake(8.2m units) in AWPF at A$1.1012 per unit, compared to A$1.0 p.u. at initial investment.
Relevance: Currently trading at more than 100% below its NTA of S$1.49 and at 10% dividend FY08 dividend yield, we continue to like Allco and maintain our BUY recommendation at a target price of S$1.56 based on DCF. (previously S$1.65)
Labels: Market News
Longcheer Update
Longcheer half-year net up 1% to 114.4m yuan
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CHINA-BASED mobile handset designer Longcheer Holdings yesterday announced a one per cent rise in net profit to 114.4 million yuan (S$22.6 million) for the half-year ended Dec 31, 2007, from 113.5 million yuan for the previous corresponding period. This came on the back of a 50 per cent rise in revenue to 1.74 billion yuan. The small rise in net profit was attributed to higher operating expenses, brought about by the increase in sales and higher research and development investment
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Labels: Market News
Trading Digest 2-4-2008
STI : 3,077.08 ( +69.28 )
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DJ MARKET TALK: SGX +5.6%; Key Blue Chip Pick - DBS Vickers
0822 GMT [Dow Jones] SGX (S68.SG) +5.6% at S$10.24; stock lifted by broad market gains, tends to do well when market sentiment is bullish (STI currently +3.1%). DBS Vickers says stock is key blue chip pick for this week, has Buy rating, S$13.20 target price. Says potential M&A, high market turnover volume supportive for shares. but warns stock could de-rate if there is a sharp downturn in equity markets. Moderate volumes, no clear overbought signal yet from technical indicators suggests shares should push tad higher with resistance tipped at 30-day moving average of S$11.17. (KIG)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 04, 2008 03:22 ET (08:22 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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SGX reveals 16 sponsors for Catalist
By Yasmine Yahya
The Singapore Exchange, or SGX, has announced a list of sponsors who will help companies to list on the new Catalist junior board.
The pioneer group consists of ten full sponsors, including the three local banks or their units, brokerages such as CIMB-GK Securities and international investment banks such as Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch. And then there are 6 continuing sponsors, law firms such as R&T Corporate Services and Stamford Corporate Services. 72 registered professionals from these 16 companies were also approved.
A full sponsor can first help a company figure out whether it's suitable to list, and then help it to prepare for a listing. Secondly it reviews the company's internal processes and advises it on issues such as rule compliance and corporate governance. A continuing sponsor is qualified only to perform the second step of the process. Head of corporate finance xxx, with Britain-based brokerage Collins Stewart, a full sponsor, says the firm's association with Catalist also marks its entry into Singapore.
"Due diligence procedures that we have in London will be brought to Singapore. And I think this is something that both Catalist and SGX want us to do. So we will be following the same due diligence procedures we follow in London here."
Head of Listings at SGX, Lawrence Wong, said SGX carried out a rigorous selection process to pick the group. "The sponsors have been selected based on their work experience, their systems, their process, their people, their track record of bringing companies to the Singapore Exchange and in the case of Collins Stewart their work experience and track record in the UK. What we are looking for is quality of work, people, systems to be all in place to undertake this important task." Mr Wong added SGX is talking to four more potential sponsors, and that the process of adding more sponsors to the group is ongoing.
In the meantime, SGX will conduct events for companies who were listed on Sesdaq to meet the current group of sponsors and to form partnerships so that they can make a full transition to Catalist. Catalist will start business tomorrow such as accept IPO launches.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 2-1-2008
STI : 3,007.8 ( +26.5 )
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The shooting star that I have identified on last Thursday ( 1/24/2008 ) did shot down STI for the past 4 ~ 5 sessions. STI closed with an inverted hammer yesterday and a hammer today. 7DMA has crossed up 14DMA. This may signal some up days next week especially where STI is still within the Parabolic SAR buy phrase. There is a very tiny positive divergent noted in the RSI from Nov 21 2007 to Jan 21 2008. Hopefully this could be the light we expected at the end of the tunner.
Market is muted by the half a basis point cut of Fed rate on 1/30/2008. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled at March 18. Another 1/4 point cuts is widely expected. Subsequent FOMC meetings are : April 29/30, June 24/25, Aug 5, Sept 16, Oct 28/29 and Dec 16.
US job data released tonight may have an impact on Dow and on Asia market next week!
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By the way, DMA here refer to "number of Days of Moving Average", not "Displayed Moving Average".
Labels: Trading Digest
