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Trading Digest 1-30-2008
STI : 3,000.03 ( -49.87 )
STI to return to 3,900 points by year's end: Citibank (938Live)
Citibank says Singapore's Straits Times Index will climb back up to 3,900 points by the year's end.
This after a region-wide selloff earlier this month, when Singapore shares tumbled the most since April 2000. Citibank's year-end STI target shows a significant upside from the 3,050 points that the index ended at yesterday. Head of Investments for Citibank Singapore, Salman Haider, said the bullish forecast is due to attractive valuations in some sectors, as well as money flows into these sectors from Asia's continued growth.
But he cautioned that the forecast was made in December, before the inset of market volatility this year, so revisions can be expected. Nevertheless, Mr Haider said retail investors should look out for banks, media and telecom stocks. "Banks from the perspective that there's fairly limited CDO exposure, the valuations are strong the dividend-yield story is a strong one. Media and telecom primarily from a cash-flow perspective. strong companies, very visible cash flows, positioned very well, and again, the dividend-yield play comes into the equation for the media companies as well."
Mr Haider said investors should be cautious about local property trusts, as well as the volatile tech sector. This is unlike the rest of Asia he said, where the tech sector will offer value, together with telecoms and banks.
Globally, Mr Haider said equities remain favoured over bonds as they continue to be resilient, despite the challenging macro-economic outlook.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 1-29-2008
STI : 3,049.90 ( +8.84 )DJ MARKET TALK: Credit Suisse Lowers STI 2008 Target To 3768
0654 GMT [Dow Jones] Credit Suisse reiterates Overweight call on Singapore market; but lowers 2008 Straits Times Index (STI) target level after recent review of earnings forecasts, targets. Says in note; "applying the target prices for STI names we cover (representing 90% of the index) indicates that the STI has a potential 24% upside from current levels to 3768." Broker had previously been targeting 4216 level for STI this year. Adds, STI trades on 2008 P/E ratio of 13.7X with projected earnings growth of 9.3% this year, driven mainly by banks, conglomerates. STI currently stands at 3046.85. (KIG)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 29, 2008 01:54 ET (06:54 GMT)
Labels: Trading Digest
Changing Strategy !
STI : 3,050.09 ( +66.47 )
A neighbour of mind who is an immigrant of Hong Kong must be a very successful trader. He does not need to work but is able to maintain a family of four, plus a car and a 4 storey terrace house. He told me he earns a living by trading the Hong Kong market. However, he makes very few trades a year. He only buy when the market crash down to past week level and sell when the market peak like October's high. In between, he is not interested to trade and would rather spend all his time socializing in the neighbourhood or to play golf. He told me just yesterday he has made a lot of money these two weeks!
I think his strategy make sense! Why bother to make a few hundred trades a year but end up having your money stuck in the basement most of the time. I will trim my positions and hibernate from now on. I will enter only when STI hits below 250 DMA. This may mean I only trade one to two times a year but I suppose this is more rewarding and less stressful than swing trade or scalping.
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Despite the continual gains for the second day, STI is not out of the wood yet. Key resistance are 3300 ~ 3330. STI must break the downtrend trendline developed since October's peak convincingly in order to prove the bear market's theory wrong. At the moment, it is still valid to say that we are in the bear market because by definition, if the market fall by 20% continuously, the bear market has begun.
The strong rebound today has triggered Parabolic SAR buy phrase so I believe STI will continue to have some sun shire attempting to test the 3300 level with profit takings in between. Updated after hour: STI closed with a shooting star candlestick, not good.
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I am tire of battling the market with the pathetic knowledge I have! Once I am able to trim my positions ( currently still at B3 ). I will step by the side but I will continue to watch the market. Enter and snatch a pie when it is below 250 ~ 350 DMA the next time when it occurs. I considered this opportunity buy !
Labels: Trading Digest
QDII Coming
Source : 938Live & DJ Market Talk
China allows Chinese banks to invest in Singapore shares
China's banking regulator says it's signed a cooperation agreement with Singapore's Monetary Authority to allow Chinese banks to invest in Singapore stocks.The China Banking Regulatory Commission also said in a statement it'll sign similar pacts with the U.S, Germany, and Japan. China's Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor or QDII program, was initiated in 2006.
It allows Chinese banks, fund managers and insurers to invest in securities abroad up to set quotas. Banks can only invest in countries with regulators that have signed a memorandum of understanding with the Chinese Banking regulator.
Currently, China has such agreements with Hong Kong and Britain. The program is viewed as an important way for China to let capital flow out of its borders to address its large balance of payments surplus and the resulting influx of liquidity. Labels: Market News
Trading Digest 1-23-2008
STI : 2,983.62 ( +117.07 )
Despite the strong rebound, my stocks are still in basement 4 !
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With the sharp decline of Asian market the past two days, Dow future was downed by 500 ~ 600 yesterday. The surprise emergency rate cuts by Fed minutes before the opening bell did not prevent the market from tumbling by as much as 450 points before losses were pared at late trading to close down 127 points.
Ben should have lowered the interest rate by half a basis point on December 11, 2007 instead of quarter basis point causing the market to decline sharply since December 11. The 3/4 basis point cuts last night came too late, not until the Asian market suffered more than 10% losses. The annoucement should not be made at pre-market. He should let the market flush down before coming in by mid-day to cheer up the market to a good closing!
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 1-22.2008
STI : 2,866.55 ( - 50.60 )-
-The 10-year STI chart above from Yahoo Finance shown two previous bear markets ( 1996 Asian financial crisis & 2000 dot com bubble ) each lasted for three & a half year. In 1996 ~ 1999, STI edged down from 2200 in 1996 ( estimated from the chart above as I do not have the actual data ) to 805 in 1999. In 2000 ~ 2004, STI edged down from 2,200 ~ 1,300.
If this is truly the onset of another bear market, there is actually no hurry to buy now ! STI may eventually edge down to 2,100 or lower by 2011?? I am not sure, just guessing ! I hope this is not ture !!
Latest:
Fed Cuts Interest Rate By .75%:
The Federal Reserve, confronted with a global stock sell-off fanned by increased fears of a recession, cut a key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on Tuesday, the biggest one-day move by the central bank in recent memory.
Labels: Trading Digest
The Bear Market Has Just Begun !
Several weeks ago, The Edge magazine officially declared the arrival of the bear market. I was pretty doubtful at that time and felt that they were too bold to make such an early statement openly where they stand to risk their reputation. Unfortunately, they were correct!
STI has plunged 187.10 points or 5.57% yesterday ( closed at 2,917.15 ) and another 140 points or 4.94% by mid-day today ( mid-day break : 2776 ) . One and a half day is all it takes for STI to lose 10.51%. This, combined with the 19% loss since October 11, 2007 has entailed STI a loss of 29.51%. The figure speaks for itself ( where the index lost more than 25% ) that the Bear Market has arrived !
The Edge actually think that the market will rebound this week ( they did not specify which day ) but it will edge down again after the rebound. The worst case scenario they anticipated is STI will touch 2,100.
The picture of a bear market painted by my TA trainer is very scary! ~~ "got sellers, no buyers, the sell bid keep going lower each day" It is time to get back to work ! The bull has been defeated and may take years to recover and return !
Labels: Market Direction
Trading Digest 1-18-2008
STI : 3,104.25 ( -35.63 ).
Dow dived another 306.9 last night to 12,159.2. This is not a surprise to me as I have stated this has been the pattern. For as long as Dow do not fall below 11,750, the long term uptrend is still intact ! I really feel that the local market and regional bourses are feeling tire about the behavior of Dow. While it is impossible to decouple with them, we are definitely less responsive toward their huge plunge!
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Technics Oil & Gas (Kim Eng)
TechOil&Gas said it has boosted its order book with more new contracts. Wholly owned subsidiary Technics Offshore Engineering Pte Ltd has secured a contract worth a total of $22 million for the overall design, procurement, engineering, construction and commissioning (EPCC) of natural gas booster compression systems, as well as the supply of operating spare parts for two years. This brings the group's total outstanding order book to $110 million as at Jan 16, comprising work-in-progress carried forward to-date and new contracts signed, with the majority of these orders due for delivery in FY2008. The latest contract features five packages of premier US-made compressor systems amounting to approximately 10,000 horsepower, driven by gas engines. When completed, the packages will be one of the largest gas compression systems to be packaged by the group. Robin Ting, founder and managing director of the group, said: 'With the substantial portion due to be recognised in FY2008, this latest contract is expected to have material impact on Technics' earnings per share and net tangible assets for FY2008.' Technics was recently upgraded to the mainboard of the Singapore Exchange.
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Allco Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust (Kim Eng)
(Allco Reit) said yesterday that the combined value of three of its property assets has jumped by $120.8 million or 12 per cent since the end of June last year, based on the latest revaluation. The three properties are China Square Central and 55 Market Street in Singapore, and Central Park in Perth. Allco Reit owns the first two properties, and has a 50 per cent stake in the third. This means that the total value of the trust's stakes in the three properties rose 36.8 per cent or $302.8 million over the full year in 2007. Their combined value at the end of December was $1.13 billion. The Singapore properties were valued by Savills and the Perth property was valued by CB Richard Ellis. 'The most significant increases in this latest round of asset valuations were seen at China Square Central and 55 Market Street in Singapore,' said Nicholas McGrath, chief executive of Allco Reit. 'These assets increased in value by 17 per cent and 14 per cent respectively in only six months.'
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Yangzijing - Sunshire, a little windy (UBS)
Valuation: Buy reiterated with PT S$2.80
YZJ’s current market value is less than 50% of its US$7bn orderbook as of 2007 end. We believe the visibility of its margins and profits in 2008/09 are high. The stock is currently trading at 17.3x/9.9x 2008E/09E, versus the regional peer average of 13.0x/9.6x. We reiterate our BUY call with PT S$2.80. Our price target is DCF-derived, assuming 10.0% WACC and 3.0%.
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Bush to outline policies for economy stimulus
The White House says US President George Bush will propose a series of short-term, temporary measures to stimulate the US economy. White House spokesman Tony Fratto said Mr Bush will detail the sorts of policies he supports in remarks expected to be delivered tomorrow. But Mr Fratto cautioned against expecting dollar figures for a package that would likely require action by the US Congress, which is controlled by Mr Bush's Democratic foes. The president has discussed the outlines of his plan during a conference call last night with top congressional leaders.
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Merrill posts worst quarter in its history
Merrill Lynch has reported about US$16 billion in mortgage-related write-downs and adjustments in the worst quarter of the company's history. Merrill's fourth-quarter net loss was US$9.8 billion compared with a profit of US$2.3 billion in the same period a year ago. The included US$11.5 billion in write-downs on US collateralized debt obligations and subprime mortgage-related securities.
The fourth-quarter results eclipsed the US$2.3-billion loss in the third quarter, when Merrill recorded 8.4 billion in write-downs. Recently named CEO John Thain said Merrill would ease risk-taking, but has enough capital to move forward after US$12.8 billion in infusions from US and foreign investors. But Mr Thain said he could not promise that the company will avoid further write-downs on subprime mortgage-related positions. There will be no dramatic job cuts, he said, and the company is not interested in selling its stakes in Bloomberg and asset manager BlackRock..
Lehman to cut 1,300 jobs
Investment bank Lehman Brothers says it will stop US wholesale mortgage lending amid a continued slump in credit and housing markets. The move will impact 1,300 jobs and result in a 40-million-US-dollar charge.
Lehman, which had built one of Wall Street's biggest mortgage businesses, said it will suspend wholesale and correspondent lending at its Aurora Loan Services unit. Aurora will continue to make home loans directly and service mortgages. The move will result in the closure of operations centers in three cities. Lehman also said it will record a charge for severance, technology and facilities exit costs.
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Baltic Dry Index sees another record fal
After seeing its biggest ever one-day drop on Wednesday, the Baltic Dry Index suffered another record fall overnight. The index monitors major trade routes for coal, iron ore, cement and soft commodities such as grains and sugar. The London-based Baltic Exchange said the index sank 441 points to 6,472 -- a six-month low. This is the fourth record drop in a week. The index was established in 1985 and is widely watched by economists and traders as a gauge of global economic activity. Research house Capital Economics said the collapse in the index is a warning sign that the commodity boom could be about to come to an abrupt end. They added that an economic slowdown in the US could also be a contributing factor, exacerbating the decline. Analysts have pinned the dramatic decline from record highs hit in November on short-term factors.
These include a decline in global port congestion and loading disruption of commodities such as iron ore in exporting countries such as Brazil. A Brazilian miner has cancelled 5 million tonnes of iron ore shipments to China in the first quarter as talks over 2008 term prices for the raw material continued. Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 1-17-2008
STI : 3,139.88 ( +81.39 )
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Ever since STI revamped into FTSE, the data are not as readily available as before. Brokerage firms are unable to stream the indices in their websites. Both ChartNexus and Analyst Data Server I subscribed are not feeded with the STI Index data by SGX as of January 10, 2008. This is making TA practitioners a headache for analysing the chart! I hope SGX can resolve the licensing issue and to continue the data services for free!
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Strategy ( UOB Kayhian )
Buy quality S-Chips at share price weakness
Share prices of S-Chips fell sharply in recent two weeks, seeing a 12.7% ytd drop in the S-chip index. The market worries that slowdown in China economy will affect corporate earnings signficantly in 2008 and 2009. Some downstream companies disclosed that the results of 4Q07 and 1H08 may miss analysts’ forecasts due to margin pressure. The stocks of quality names were dumped as well. We believe it is a good opportunity to accumulate quality stocks. We are still optimistic toward China economy despite short-term slow down seems inevitable. Yet, the GPD growth should maintain >10% driven by strong private and government spending. The inflationary pressure will gradually ease in 2H08 as the macro policies the government is taking starts to come into effect. We suggest investors to buy a) consumer names with well-known brand and established distribution network, which could pass on raw material price hike to end-users, like Synear Food (SYNF SP), Beauty China (BCH SP) and China Hongxing (CHHS SP); b) China Farm (CFE SP) and XLX (CXLX SP) that are in agriculture industry, which the government deliver strong support and little affected by the tightening policy; c) companies that have the potentials to benefit from M&As, such as Cosco corp. (COS SP); d) and the companies with relatively higher entry barrier, like Sinotech Fibre (SINOT SP) and Full Apex (FAPX SP).
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 1-16-2008
STI : Down, Down, Down... Very Ugly!
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I have not been writing for almost a week now. Not that I do not have anything to write, but does it matter whether I write or I don't? The market has been crashing down like a bag of beans. This was predicted in my various posts made early last week ( downtrend channel spotted in Dow, triangle formed in STI ). Most of the TA blogs would scramble to produce more charts, more trendlines and finding more support levels. Does it really help to stop the market from falling further? The market, lead by Wall Street ( Dow especially ), is going through a random wild swing. Triple digits down for 3 ~ 5 days and triple digits up for 1 ~ 2 days. Then the cycle repeat itself again. This is a tough market for any trader, probably except the born gambler, to be in. You have the individual stock to worry, the STI index to worry, the HSI, Nikki & Dow to worry. What else? Crude oil prices, FOMC rate decision, Dow future, more corporate bad news, analysts downgrading the fair value & target prices of your counters....etc. Before Ben Bernanke speak, the market expected him to give hint to rate cut. When he has given such hint, the market becomes worry on what he meant. With hint or without hint, the market will find its reason to crash down further. It is a crazy market to be in. I am happy to stay at the sideline for a while, let the bull & bear spar and see who is the final winner. For those who are soaked, looking too closely at the screen will only increase your blood pressure. Let things take its natural course. What goes down will come up again. For those who are not soaked, this is a good time to start collecting as the prices now are "pretty reasonable" versus October 2007's high. It is hard to predict when the downtrend will stop and reverse ( again, I can pull out the chart and start drawing trendline & support but if none of the analysts in any stock brokerage firm had its prediction works, why waste time ) so I won't use the word "cheap" yet. I bet it is hard for anyone who stumble into this blog not to be soaked. If you are not soaked, you are probably not a trader. If you are not a trader, you won't be reading.
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This is what I meant above - Anaysts cutting fair value & tgt of your counters as if trading is not challanging enough !! Back in October 2007, these are the target :
OCBC........... $16.20 (10 Oct 07)
DBS...............$17 10 (Oct 07)
CIMB ........ ...$14.20 (09 Oct 07)
JP Morgan .. $17 (02 Oct 07)
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DJ MARKET TALK: SGX Off 3.5%; UOB-KH Cuts Fair Value To S$9.70
0200 GMT [Dow Jones] SGX (S68.SG) down 3.5% at S$9.65 as investors concerned bourse operator may struggle to deliver strong earnings in future as market uncertainty curtails trading activity. Fiscal 2Q08 net profit +44% on-year at S$156 million on higher securities turnover, one-off distribution gain. UOB-KayHian analyst Leng Seng Choon, who has Sell call, cuts fair value to S$9.70 (26X FY09 earnings) from S$12.10 after lowering FY09, FY10 earnings forecasts to reflect reduced stock market turnover assumptions. Stock's rebound from early low of S$9.30 suggests selling pressure has eased, though shares may still end below S$10 for first time since September. (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
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DJ MARKET TALK: CS Cuts SGX Target To S$10.90, Keeps Neutral
0344 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse cuts SGX (S68.SG) target price to S$10.90 from S$14.50 after 2QFY08 core net profit of S$122.4 million came in +92.1% on-year, but down 5.8% on-quarter, marking first on-quarter drop in five quarters. Says decline driven by weaker equities, derivatives turnover. "Revenues softened in-line with equities turnover, costs firmed up, net profit margin was flat at 60%, and ROEs fell to a still-whopping 73%." Notes daily equity turnover fell to US$1.3 billion in December from US$2.1 billion in October, has averaged US$1.4 billion so far in January. Cuts turnover assumptions by a fifth for January-June, FY09E. "Initiatives to boost turnover such as reduced bid-offer spread (from Dec. 24, 2007), upgrading of technology to allow algorithmic trades (2008-09), and change in clearing fee structure (May 2007) are likely to show results over a period of time." Keeps at Neutral. Share down 4.7% at S$9.53. (LES)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 15, 2008 22:44 ET (03:44 GMT)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 1/10/2008
STI : 3,311.07 ( -33.46 )
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The local market has switched to the revamped STI index today. There were some glitches in the live quote from shareinvestor.com for the first hour. I was obviously wrong in hopping that the new index may serve to stimulate market sentiment.
I do not know what reason does analyst attach to the market behavior today. For me, I felt yesterday's closing with a moderate gain of 6 points have already priced in the rebound from Dow last night by 146.2 ( closed at 12,735.3 ). Market drop today because they are cautious about what will happen to Wall Street tonight after the rebound, especially where Ben will deliver a speech tonight. Wall Street is now expecting the Fed to come out with a stimulation plan before the FOMC meet on Jan 30. Perhaps a 0.5% rate cut before the meeting and another .25% cut on the day they meet (plus tax cut...etc). Depending on what hint the market derived from Ben's speech tonight, it will drive the market on either direction. I could be wrong but this is my humble opinion.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 1/9/2008
STI : 3,344.53 ( +6.26 )
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Dow plunged another 238 points to 12,587 overnight. No support seem to be able to hold this falling knife. This is the 9th straight falling sessions without any eminent rebound in between ( there were pause days though ). My gut feel tell me a rebound is definitely in the card given that Dow has lost 962 points continually. On Nov 1 - 12, Dow skidded 937 points before a rebound took place.
What next after the rebound? A downtrend channel has been developed. Unless there is major news that uplift the sentiment causing a reversal. Dow may eventually trend down to touch March 07's low. Hopefully by then a double bottom is formed. The monthly chart of Dow has just turned bearish based on Parabolic SAR. Usually, this may last for at least 6 months ( from the onset of bear to the onset of bull ) in the monthly chart. If we half the 6 months period to determine the bottom, it is still 3 months away from bottom. Hey, this tally with what DBS Vickers said.
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Locally, selling has exhausted. STI used to respond to the triple digits plunge of Dow by falling 80 ~ 90 points. However, we were within +/- 20 points today. We have come to a point where short sellers are finding it too risky to go short and those who have gone long finding it too painful to cut. Most are probably looking forward for a triple digits rebound of Dow and 80 ~ 100 points correspondingly from STI before taking the next move. By the way, 3,300 was tested today. It was tested once in mid Dec 07 as well.
Labels: Market Direction, Trading Digest
Trading Digest 1/8/2008
STI : 3,338.27 ( -14.79 ) -
STI closed below 3,350 today. 3,350 is a trendline support developed since Aug 17. The next support will be 3,300, a trendline traced back to Feb '07. DBS Vickers predicted yesterday that STI will edge down to 3,000 at the end of 1Q. AMFraser, on the other hand, said "it is unlikely to plunge all the way to 3000 even if it breaks key 3300 psychological support. Even if a break of 3300 happen, it would not last more than a few days as in mid-August when the index broke 3300 decisively for only 2 days after 4 days of making minor breaks below 3300 but was back to above 3300 the next trading day after bottoming at 2962 on Aug 17". (sounds like broken English but it was extracted directly from their report)
Personally, I felt the Aug correction is less painful due to the quick recovery. I don't mind seeing STI to plunge 190 points and then quickly recover closing the day with a "hammer" candlestick and then heading to the road of recovery!
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-Below is a clsoe up shot of Dow. Yesterday's closing was a Bullish Harami. However, this is the 3rd such candlestick in the past six sessions. The previous two candles were negated and the market went further down ( heavily ). I am afraid TA can no longer be calling the shot. It is all about sentiment & news!
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Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 1/7/2008
STI : 3,353.06 ( -84.73 )-Just noticed STI has been trending in a symmetrical triangle formation. Under normal circumstance, this is exciting ( as we normally associate formation with breakout ) but in light of the bearish sentiment, this can be worrying ( breakdown instead?)!
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DJ MARKET TALK: China XLX +4.2% On Demand Hopes; S$1.27 Cap
0325 GMT [Dow Jones] China XLX Fertiliser (B9R.SG) +4.2% at S$1.24 in active trade, rebounding from early low of S$1.15, as investors continue to bet company poised to benefit from rising fertilizer demand. Local house dealer notes coal-based fertilizer producer's average selling price has increased to CNY1,700/ton from CNY1,400/ton; expects interest to persist given strong earnings growth, prospects of M&A deals going forward; "this company is on my radar screen." Net profit for first 9 months of FY07 nearly tripled on-year on-year to CNY244.3 million, 3Q07 earnings more than doubled to CNY79.6 million on increased sales of higher margin products. Immediate resistance tipped at S$1.27 (61.8% Fibonacci mark between record S$1.50 high, November low of S$0.90). (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 06, 2008 22:25 ET (03:25 GMT) Labels: Trading Digest
New STI Index (Bluechip) On January 10, 2008
Labels: Market News
Market Direction ( Jan 7 -11 )
Dow Rebound Insight-
Dow sunk 256.54 points on Friday to close at 12,800.18. It was a brutal selling tipped by weaker than expected job data ( Dec only 18,000 jobs added instead of the 70,000 expected ). The closing price has broken below 350 DMA which is very bearish. The consolation is, the closing was supported by a resistance turns support traced back to Feb 20, 2007 and a trendline support originated from Aug 16, 2007. When a closing is supported by more than one trendline or support, it is stronger than a single support.
I believed Dow will stage a technical rebound on Monday (if not on Tuesday). However, I am not suggesting the market has bottomed and will recover from here but just a rebound due to oversold. In fact, the market MAY trend down further!
President Bush has met with the PPT ( Plunge Protection Team ) on Friday. There might be surprises for the market early next week. However, if the support don't hold, next support will be 12,520.
-Locally, needless to say. It will be blood shed tomorrow. Hopefully, the trendline support could hold STI at around 3,350. If Dow rebound on Monday, we shall track its movement on Tuesday. This truly is a crazy market. We have the individual stock to take care. We have STI movement to take care. We now have Dow movement to take care. Anyone who could survive this market will find it much easier to trade when the market returns to "normal".
Labels: Market Direction
Trading Digest 1/4/2008
STI : 3,437.79 ( +40.73 )-
STI rose 1.2% today. S-shares performance were remarkable !-
DJ MARKET TALK: New QDII Funds To Boost S-Shares-Merrill Lynch
0439 GMT [Dow Jones] Merrill Lynch expects the expansion of China's QDII funds to boost interest in Singapore-listed Chinese companies, or S-shares. "We expect more QDII funds to be launched in the near future, which will further escalate interest in S-shares given their cheaper valuation compared to A-shares and Hong Kong-listed Chinese equities," broker says in note. Adds plans afoot to require newly launched QDII funds to invest not more than 30% of assets in single market; would force funds to look beyond Hong Kong, possibly meaning they invest more in Singapore. Tips large, liquid S-shares to be main focus for QDII funds; broker's in house S-share index ranks Cosco (F83.SG), Yangzijiang (BS6.SG) and Yanlord (Z25.SG) as biggest three S-shares by market cap. (KIG) ontact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 03, 2008 23:39 ET (04:39 GMT)
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-DJ MARKET TALK: China XLX Fertiliser +14.4%; S$1.27 Resistance
0625 GMT [Dow Jones] China XLX Fertiliser (B9R.SG) +14.4% at 4-week high of S$1.19 on strong volume. "The big boys are buying," trader says. Foreign house analyst says share price possibly driven by rising fertilizer demand; "there are some people saying because of rising crop prices, there's strong interest in wanting to increase crop yield given limited available land for farmers. So there's probably strong demand for fertilizer to boost crops." On charts, technical indicators suggest upward momentum intact with stock yet to reach overbought levels. Resistance tipped at S$1.27 (61.8% Fibonacci mark between record S$1.50 high, November low of S$0.90). (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 04, 2008 01:25 ET (06:25 GMT)
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Mimosa Comment:
Today's rally marks the breakout from a triangle formation supported by high volume. There is a chance where XLX can hit $1.5 in the near term.
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DJ MARKET TALK: Synear +6.3%; Charts Tip S$1.73 First Resistance
0426 GMT [Dow Jones] Synear Food (Z75.SG) +6.3% at S$1.70 in fairly active trade. Shares sold off late last year following weak 3Q results as food producer battered by higher flour, pork prices. But some analysts see company as key beneficiary of growing China consumer demand; CIMB named Synear top food & beverage pick for 2008 in recent note, says company to benefit from solid food prices, strong brands, sees rising Chinese consumption as big investment theme this year. Weekly MACD positive, volume high with number of shares traded already matching daily average; suggests stock could see more upside. First resistance tipped at S$1.73 (23.6% Fibonacci forward retracement to Oct. 29 peak of S$2.52 from Dec. 21 low of S$1.50); with subsequent resistance at Dec. 6 intraday high of S$1.87. (KIG)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 03, 2008 23:26 ET (04:26 GMT)
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 1/3/2008
STI : 3,397.06 ( -64.16 )
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STI closed down 1.85%, tracking weakness across Asian markets, spooked by surging oil prices ( oil price touches $100 breifly during intra-day ) and fears of a sharp slowdown in the US economy. Dow tumbled 220 points overnight, the worst fist trading day of a new year since 1983.
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Dow lost 506 points in four sessions. A technical rebound may take place.
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Bought SGX at $12.72 in anticipation of rebound.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 1/2/2008
STI : 3,461.22 ( -21.08 )
As predicted, STI took cue from Dow overnights lackluster performance and sheded 21.08 points today. It has failed to break the downtrend trendline resistance after touching it on 12/31.
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Talking about prediction, it is not the primarily objective of this blog. The goal of this blog is to make money from the stock market thru' continuous learning, especially learnt from mistakes and history. Most of the experience traders and renowned trainers around (like those from ChartNexus or Terraseeds) do not make prediction publicly. It is too risky to put their reputation at stake. Kelvin Han is probably the only exception as he makes prediction daily, or rather multiple times a day ( on market movement, stock and future movement ).
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Unfortunately, he makes mistakes ( many, above as example ). He charged $3,000 per participant for his V2Go course. If he makes mistakes, I guess I am excusable.
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Most TA trainers will put up nice charts in their blog only after the formation or trend is confirmed ( already happened ) to cite their theory. On the contrary, my charts are ahead of the actions. Market is not straight forward. Individual counter is even more vulnerable, often at the mercy of the market sentiment.
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Counters Update:
STX PO - Profit taking did take place but came a day later than I thought
Biosensors - The gap up on December 26 was a "breakaway gap", which mean "a new trend has born" and the gap won't be covered so soon. Haha, I started to sound like trainer - Ma Hou Pao. But honestly, it is hard to differentiate "breakaway gap" from "exhausion gap" so better be safe to observe it longer.
YZJ - SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd. (BS6.SG) said Wednesday it secured contracts in December to build 20 vessels with a total value of $1.3 billion.
The China-based shipbuilder now has an orderbook worth $6.9 billion that includes container ships and bulk carriers, it said in a statement.
The recent order of 20 vessels is due for delivery by July 2012.
Other stocks to watch - China HX, Lian Beng
Labels: Trading Digest
Stock Review - Longcheer
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Longcheer has turned bullish for three sessions and the current traded prices have broken the three month downtrend trendline. There seem to be a double bottom formation noted. If valid, hopefully this will bring Longcheer back into a 70 cents stock. One year ago, Longcheer was a market darling traded at $1.2 ~ $1.3. It does not deserve the treatment it has experienced anyway.
There is no news associated to the recent gain. Some counters rallied due to news ( eg: STX PO ) but for the case of Longcheer, it has been under tremendous selling pressure for a long time and has become oversold. Some buyers have returned causing the prices to go up.
I foresee a strong resistance at $0.69 where another downtrend resistance and Fibo 61.8% confluence.
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Update on 1/2/08: Today's closing gives rise to a "doji star". This denotes indicision of buyers/sellers but usually signal a trend reversal. Confirmation is needed tomorrow to determine near term trend.
Labels: Stock Pick
Stock Watch - YJZ
-Downtrend resistance broken few sessions ago. Trying to find a direction right now. If it hits $2.08, buy phrase will be triggered.
YJZ will be a bluechip by January 10, 2008. It is also a newly added STI component stock.
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Update on January 2, 2008
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd. (BS6.SG) said Wednesday it secured contracts in December to build 20 vessels with a total value of $1.3 billion.The China-based shipbuilder now has an orderbook worth $6.9 billion that includes container ships and bulk carriers, it said in a statement.The recent order of 20 vessels is due for delivery by July 2012.
Labels: Stock Pick
Trading Digest - 1/1/2008
STI : Closed today due to New Year holidayDow overnight : -101 ( 12/31 )-As many analysts have pointed out, the first half of 2008 will continued to be tricky and volatile depending on the severity of the US recession. Both STI & DJIA have not cleared the short-term downtrend. The rebound from 11/22 ~ 26' low for both indices have given hope that the market is turning around but it has U-turn too soon on 12/7 ~ 11 failing to score a higher high and thus did not break the downtrend. This is very worrying....
With the close of 3,482 on 12/31, STI will test the downtrend resistance on its first trading day of 2008 tomorrow. Usually, first day of a new trading year should see a bullish white candle ( at least this is the case for the past two years). But with Dow tumbled 101 points and its future in red at this time, I am not sure will STI be able to successfully break the downtrend resistance tomorrow. It it U-turn from here, that really is not pretty !
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Window dressing on 12/31 has helped lifted STI up by 36 points. SGX up 38 cents to $13.42 added six points to the index. Eight cent jump in SingTel to $4 accounted for 8.3 points in the index. Cycle & Carriage rose 76 cents to $21.80, but each step of the way up only one lot of shares was traded,' said a dealer. 'This is surely very fishy.' Labels: Market Direction, Trading Digest
