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Missing The Boat!
I must confess that I have missed the boat of the recent market recovery. STI has shown clear sign of recovery technically since September 5 but I have been obsessed with the belief that STI is not out of the wood yet because Dow is not out of the wood. This thinking was largely instigated by InTheMoneyStock.com. The fear of having another leg down has prevented me from making any trade over the past month. Sigh, STI & Dow have both hit record high! I guess I am not alone, UOBKH ( see 9/11 blog ), iOCBC, my broker, my TA trainer... are all caught by the market.
Labels: Market Direction
Trading Digest 9/12
STI : 3,506.09 ( +11.52 )1. Dow overnight : 13,308.39 ( + 180.54 )Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 9/11
STI : 3,494.57 ( +52.70 )
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1. Dow overnight 13,127.85, up 14.47.
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2. Both InTheMoneyStock.com & UOB Kay Kian are in the opinion that the correction is not over yet. Both have predicted Dow will re-visit the 12,000+ and STI at 2,950.
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Monday, 10 September 2007
Technical Analysis
US bourses complete bear rally,
Friday’s decline in US indices confirms that the corrective rally in the US has ended. Our earlier take on the DOW was that the index was within C of an AB_C corrective structure and that the index could head up towards 13500 before falling towards at least 12500 or so. We had however assumed that the break down would take place following the FOMC meeting on September 18. We stand corrected on that front. Friday’s decline came on the back of weak August non-farm payrolls which showed a decline of 4000 jobs versus expectations of gain of 110,000 jobs. The weak numbers led to a steep rise in both the 2yr and 5 yr US Treasury bonds, with yields declining towards the lowest level in recent weeks. We had earlier warned that the bond markets did not show the same degree of enthusiasm as equity markets, with the latter rebounding significantly greater than a corresponding fall in US bond markets. This to us, was another sign that the recent move up was a corrective rally. Readers should now expect at least another decline towards prior low of 12525 or towards the 12,000 level.
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Singapore bourse
The wave pattern for the ST Index is less clear partly because of recent inaccurate data points. Even so, we can safely assume that the rebound from 2962 has ended or is at the very final stage. At the very least, the index will correct 62%of the advance from 2962-3505, which will provide a downside target of 3170, which is near a prior gap level An equally likely scenario would be for the index to drop back towards 2962. Our preferred view, nonetheless is that the ST index is within a 4 wave decline.
ST Index- corrective rally could have ended at 3505.
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3. Have been staying at the sideline waiting for opportunity buy.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 9/6
STI : 3,466.06 ( +20.98 )
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1. STI open lower but close higher despite Dow dropped 143.39 overnight to close at 13,305.47. This is quite unexpected.
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2. Cosco shoots up to $5.4 !! This is very frustrating as I have waited for it to rally the whole week.
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DJ MARKET TALK: STI Computation Error Recurs,Figures Not Reliable
0149 GMT [Dow Jones] STI computation error, which Singapore Exchange says it resolved yesterday, again hitting trading today. "The Straits Times Index may not reflect fully the movement in its components," SGX says in statement just released. Adds market markers for structured warrants on STI may not be quoting on those issues. "I think it is a big concern for the SGX as the feed is from them to our rented terminals and it's not reliable," says foreign brokerage dealer; "this should not recur, especially when we were 'down time' on the index yesterday morning." SGX yesterday said error due to corporate action of component stock, which it didn't identify but which market believes is SIA (S55.SG); stock's weightage was adjusted to reflect capital reduction exercise taking effect yesterday. (FKH)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 05, 2007 21:49 ET (01:49 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 9/5
STI : 3,445.08 ( +69.02 )
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1. Dow rallied 91.12 points to close at 13,448.86. STI has computational error in the morning but fixed by afternoon trading. The variance appear to be 50+ points.
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2. Cosco rallied to close at $5.2 !! However, the rationale to cut yesterday was inevitable in view of the contra loss.
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3. InTheMoneyStock.com maintained a heavy sell down involving several days of triple digits drop is still in the making.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 9/4
STI : 3,376.06 ( -10.16 )
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1. STI & regional bourses are still waiting for new direction from Wall Street.
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2. Cut Cosco at $5.05. This ends the episode started last Wednesday where I shorted 5 lots of Cosco at $4.66 and covered back at $4.82 plus turning long. It was a nightmare where the price move higher when I go short and edged lower when I go long. Lesson learnt, never short because time is not on your side. You have only from 9:00am - 5:00pm to profit or cover your position.
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3. Offloaded all PacHC ( in 4 partial ). Big pain !
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 9/3
STI : 3,386.22 ( -6.69 ) Vol : 1,586.7M1. Market is moving sideline since Wall Street is closed tonight. 2. PacHC was partially filled ( only 4 lots this time ) at .40, sigh !!Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 8/31
STI : 3,392.91 ( +71.76 )1. STI finally rally ahead of Ben's key note address and G Bush's speach. Resistance : 3,410 & 3,480.2. Dow closed up 119.01 at 13,357.74 on Friday. Resistance: 13,450 & 13,700.3. Bargain hunt should STI dips:ST Engineering : $3.12 - $3.48SGX : $7.65 - $8.30Cosco : $3.48 - $4.28China Hongx : $0.58 - $0.71Swissco : $0.835 - $0.96The above were Aug 17 "low / close" prices. On that day, STI dipped 190+ points.Labels: Trading Digest
