|
Closure Of Mimosa's Blog
With effect from Sept 1, 2007, this blog will be turned into a private blog where access will be granted only to a few invited guests.
-
I have started this blog 6 months ago with the original aim to improve my TA & trading skill. I use it more like a diary to document my trading mistakes and TA observation errors. Over time, I have become obsessed in blogging and have turned myself into a blogger rather than trader. There were several occasions where I was so engrossed in writing ( the intra-day update ) and I have missed the golden opportunity to sell with profit at openings.
-
I think it is time where I should re-align my direction and stay on course of what I was doing.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 8/31
Intra-day Update:- US market gone through an "insaned whipsaw" last night to close slightly flat for Nasdaq and down ( -50.56 ) for Dow. Volume remains very light. BBs were using the opportunity sucking up the amateurs' money by riding them through a long, short & long sessions and making sudden reversal to cash in the amateurs' money...etc. Ben Bernanke is expected to deliver a keynote address tonight ahead of the US long weekend. Market may continue to be trading in this feshion. The date to watch is Sept 9/10.
( source of input: InTheMoneyStock.com )........................................................Pre-Open Update ( updated 8/30, 11:00pm): -US Stocks sputter post-rally - NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com)
August 30 2007: 10:09 AM EDT
Dow and S&P 500 dip, Nasdaq struggles one day after big market rally; worries about credit turmoil, Fed policy weigh.
-- Stocks struggled Thursday morning, weakening after the previous day's rally, as investors eyed more signs of credit market troubles and geared up for Friday's key speech from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke.
-
Fed may not rush to the rescue - (CNNMoney.com)
Bernanke wants to break assumption that central bank will cut rates whenever there is turmoil in financial markets, according to WSJ.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 8/30
STI : 3,321.15 ( -13.51 ) Vol: 2,494.8M
-
Sigh ! The behavior of STI is not unexpected. That's why I have carefully chosen my words yesterday and said "minor rebound" and "good through the morning". This prediction is through past observation. Come on STI, what's wrong with you. HSI and Nikki have all rebounded and remained in the green at closing.
-
Asian Markets Close Higher, But Singapore Declines (CNBC)
Asian markets mostly finished higher Thursday, but were off their morning highs. Volumes were thin amid a dearth of strong incentives, with many market participants holding back ahead of a long weekend in the United States. Japan and South Korea both closed almost 1% higher.
Singapore's Straits Times Index was the only Asian index to close lower, with shipbuilder Labroy Marine leading the losers with a 9% decline.
--
...........................................
Intra-day Update:
-
1. Wall Street rebounded strongly overnight. Nasdaq gained 62.52 points to close at 2,563.16 and Dow gained 247.44 to closed at 13,289.29. Nasdaq closed with a Bullish Engulfing candle. This is a very bullish technical signal. Unless there is sudden bad news injected to the market, Nasdaq & Dow should be traded at light volume with sideways to up direction until the American return from Labour Day holiday. Unless the index drift up from here to touch the 50 moving average, the 2nd leg of down swing is still pending.... ( opinion compiled from InTheMoneyStock.com ).
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 8/29
STI : 3,334.66 ( -8.34 ) Vol : 2,220.6M
-
1. As predicted accurately, Dow did take a heavy plunge on 8/28. At the closing bell, Dow dipped 280.28 to close at 13,041.85. STI & regional bourses responded to the sharp fall in Wall Street to gap down upon open. But most indices have recouped the early losses at closing. STI closed down 8.34 points. During intra-day, STI lost as much as 90+ points.
-
2. The direction of STI tomorrow will depend largely on Dow tonight. If Dow is up or flat, STI should stage a minor technical rebound ( at least good through the morning ). But if Dow continued the fall, STI and regional bourses will not be spared. There is a likelihood where Dow will close higher or flat since yesterday's close was at the lowest of the day.
-
3. This is the begining of the next leg of major correction which will take us to August 17 low or lower.
-
4. I have been having fun today with Cosco going short and then turning long. The game is not over yet. I will document my experience here once I have exited my position. Anyway, my broker will like me, today alone, I have clocked in $100K revenue for him.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 8/28
STI : 3,343 ( - 45.44 ) Vol : 2,280.8M
-
Stocks in Europe and Asia declined and U.S. index futures fell on renewed concern the subprime-mortgage rout is spreading and will erode global economic growth
( source of news by courtesy of Cool bro, thanks! )
-
................................................................
Intra-day update ( last updated : 12:45pm ):
-
1. Dow Market Correction Analysis:
As stated in my TA on Sunday, Dow's closing on Friday has tipped the downtrend resistance channel. It is interesting to note how closely has Dow adhered to the chart pattern. It did not even attempt to test the Fibo 61.8% but took a U-turn and dipped 56.74 points to close at 13,322.16.
The presenter from InTheMoneyStock.com still believe something is brewing in the horizon. Volume traded the whole day was very low except the last few minutes where there was hard selling with high volume. Financial stocks like Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns, Lehamn, ML, JP Morgon...etc. have seen consistent downward pressure just minutes before the market close. This is the reverse of what has happened not long ago where all these stocks were rally & rally the day before the Fed made the sudden announcement of rate cut. So, does it means that there is news leaked pertaining to the FOMC minute to be released tomorrow at 2pm? If Fed decided to hold rate, the US dollar will rally & the market will come down.
-
2. Broker's View:
My broker is not a technical guy but it is good to look at view from other than technical:
....there are currently 2 outlooks on the economy, 1 is that we were already at the rock bottom and are now bouncing up and aiming for new highs again. The second more prominent would be that the correction everyone is expecting for should be in Oct which it almost always occurs, it starts in July – August and gets full steam in Oct, we will be looking at 30-50 days of downside weakness and correction of more than 20%. The March and August market collapse will pale in comparison. Whether the market drops in Oct or not, it best to take caution as it may be a self-fulfilling prophecy.....
Ironically, his view conflunce with the technical stuff we have been talking about except that we are looking at the immediate weeks ahead but he is talking about October. All I can hope for is that if there is another major collapse, a double bottom can be formed but don't plunge anything lower. So the popular saying "Sell in May and go away" ( return by November ) seem like a self fulfill prophecy too although the timing is off by two months or so.
-
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 8/27
STI : 3,388.44 ( +18.99 ) Vol: 2,064.1M
-
PATIENCE
STI has failed to break the 3,400 resistance again today. The more attempts it has made but failed, the tougher the resistance. In fact, the next resistance at 3,480 could be quite strong too as it is a "support turns resistance" where the support was tested many times.
The EOD data for indices won't be available until 11:30pm ( this is the time where SGX will upload the data to ChartNexus ). But I think the volume traded today is very thin again ( lower than Friday ?). At the rate it goes where prices are attempting to drive higher but volume keep falling. Something is not quite right. In fact, the rebound from Aug 17 from a low of 2,962 to a high of 3,441 on Aug 23, a gain of 479 points within 5 sessions is too sharp. I keep telling myself to be patience and don't be itchy finger. If I am wrong, I only miss some chances of making money. But if something is truly brewing and I am caught, I could end up with a bunch of poison balls. So be patient !
Those counters I have mentioned here before are all doing very well:
ChinaHongx $0.85
Swissco $1.21
Jiutian $2.11
Labels: Trading Digest
Dow & STI Outlook
Dow Outlook ( Aug 27-31 )Crucial Level To Watch : 13,450 ( may U-turn from there or hit 13,700 )
Dow rose 142.99 points on last Friday to close at 13,378.87. It has tipped the downtrend channel resistance. It is possible for Dow to push up further to test 13,450 which is Fibonacci 61.8% and 50 DMA. If it is able to break this resistance, the next level up will be 13,700. However, judging at the declining volume over the past 6 bullish sessions. The upward momentum may not sustain. Please read also "Dow Bull Trap" below"
-
STI Outlook ( Aug 27-31 )
Level To Watch: 3,400 - 3,480
STI closed on Friday with a bullish "Hammer" candlestick ( the gap up on 8/23 was closed ). So there is no doubt Monday will be a good day ( particularly Dow was up on Friday ). Monday will see STI retesting 3400 with which it has tested on 8/23 but failed to break it at closing. If succeeded this time, STI will advance to 3480.
In terms of volume, the past six sessions was generally down. The spike on 8/23 is not something good because the surge was on a bearish day. So future movement of STI beyond Monday & Tuesday will depend largely on Dow. On its own, STI looks as if it has bottomed with "Higher High" spotted.
Labels: Market Direction
Trading Basic - 5
Is Technical Analysis A Myth?
Last Sunday (8/19), someone posted a thread in CNA market talk casting doubt on the role of TA in a market turmoil like this driven by news. While most of the forumers were pretty mild in their opinions, there was a few who were quite critical & described TA as rubbish.
Technical Analysis (TA) is not myth. Neither nor it is crystal ball. It is a methodology aided by a collection of tools available to traders for the prediction of future price movement. TA is possible because humans reaction to market conditions & news are consistent 100 years ago and 100 years later. Investors made the same mistakes over and over again ( motivated by hope, greed & fear ). Buyers & sellers' reaction to good news or bad news from the market are reflected in the price/volume action. So prices & volumes are not really random as they may perceived. By studying the price/volume behavior using techniques taught by TA, one is able to make some good predictions of the movement that followed. TA focus on "What" more than "Why". As ridiculous as it may seem when the market is trending up ( or trending down ), TA offers timely warning of trend reversal ( or trend continuation ).
Dow Bull Trap?
When the market is going through wild swing like -190 points one day and +190 points another day. Some TA indicators may lag behind the action. But other techniques are available to fill the gap. In the case of the Dow Correction Technical Analysis, the presenter places a lot of emphasis on the ES Future & Options. By observing how the ES Future rises while volume is falling, he has deduced that the bullishness this past week could be a "Bull Trap". With the light volume seen the past few days, the BB was able to push the prices up with minimum amount of capital so that the mass market may think that the bull has returned. When the mass market enters, BB will just dump their holding which may lead to panic selling. He predicts that either next week ( Tuesday or Wednesday ), or latest by the week after next when the market returns from the Labour Day holiday. The market will pull back dramatically. The presenter don't believe sub-prime issue will be the same catalyst triggering the next plunge. It could be Yen carry trade or falling dollar, or it can be some other excuse. Again, TA focus on "What", not "Why". Even if the reason or excuse is not known yet, the impending action is shown in the chart.
The way the American pushes the limit of TA almost make me believe Technical Analysis is a myth too. But no, it is not, it is just his skill. All of us are looking at the same chart, for those who are unable to spot as much ( myself included ), don't draw the conclusion so soon that TA is rubbish but go polish our skill first.
My approach: Use FA to identify fundamentally sound stock. Use TA to time the entry and exit. In parallel, pay attention to news, brokerage firm & fund houses rating of the counter. For nimble trade, TA alone is fine to trade against formation breakout or strong buy signal.
.....................................
Link :
Labels: Market Direction, Trading Basic
Trading Digest 8/24
Intra-day Update ( updated 4:10pm ):
-
1. Dow closed almost flat ( -0.25 ) at 13,235.88.
Dow gone thru' a "Gap & Crap" yesterday. The future movement is a little "grey" but should be "sideways trending up slightly" for a few more days. Advice is to keep cash on hand and avoid going long.
Local market, after two days of advance, STI should take a breather.
-
2. Cosco has secured a contract of US$ 708 million. This news should have positive impact on its prices today erasing the TA signal observed ( news precede signal ). However, if this news is something that investors have expected and the impact has already been factored into the recent price gain. Then, after some initial price chase, it will calm down or edge lower ( buy on rumour sell on news ).
(10:30am) : see how people short down the prices !!
-
3. Longcheer quarterly result : Revenue up 23%, profit down 16%. I think investors are more concerned on profit than revenue. Was that why yesterday there were some price chasing but at the end of the day, it closed with a doji in a position signaling possible reversal !?
DJ MARKET TALK: Longcheer Off 0.8%; FY07 Net Pft Slips 16%
0258 GMT [Dow Jones] Longcheer (L28.SG) off 0.8% at S$0.595 after posting 16% on-year fall in FY07 net profit to CNY287.8 million due to increased competition. CIMB says results were below expectations, lowers target price to S$0.69 from S$0.78, keeps at Neutral "as we believe the stock price has already priced in the downside." Company optimistic of remaining profitable in FY08 as it develops export markets, expands geographical footprint. Company, which designs mobile handsets in China, posted 23% on-year rise in FY07 revenue to CNY2.4 billion. Support at week low of S$0.56. (JEM)
August 23, 2007 22:58 ET (02:58 GMT)
CIMB sucks. They were the one who in May still issue a buy call with a target of $1.55 !! Overall, I am convinced CIMB's coverage is the most unreliable. Their targets are often much higher than other brokerage firms who cover the same stock.
-
-
5. Removed page "Another Way To Trade The Market" as I find Warrant carries lots of risk.
-
6. DJ MARKET TALK: STI Off 0.8%;
Another Selldown Possible -Westcomb
0620 GMT [Dow Jones] STI expected to end lower, but decline may be modest as investors may opt not to liquidate too much of their holdings as they await new credit-related developments on Wall Street. Index now down 0.8% at 3345.23, but off low of 3318.06. Support tipped at 3300. Still, Westcomb says market volatility will likely persist amid ongoing global credit concerns, especially given lack of buyers in U.S. for over US$100 billion worth of commercial paper (short-term debt issued by companies) due over next 90 days; "in the absence of readily available buyers, companies might have to refinance from banks or sales of assets, which might spark off another wave of downward revision in global asset prices." Overall market volume thin. (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 24, 2007 02:20 ET (06:20 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Labels: Trading Digest
Technical Pick (8/24)
While I will continue to adopt a cautious approach toward the market, the following counters are really appealing. I hope I can control my itchy fingers tomorrow.
If not because of the heavy infuence by the Ang Mo about the impending 10% more correction in Dow, I would have thought that we are done with the correction. But if Dow is not done, we are not done !
-Swissco
Technical observations:Candlestick - "Rising Window" observedParabolic SAR - Buy phraseMACD crossover - MACD line move above signal line from below ( cross not completed yet )MACD Histrogram - More green bars than red, zero line crossover soon.Level to watch - $1.2, $1.3, $1.45-Other counters worth watching:
Aztech - turning bullish (Parabolic SAR)
Ausgroup - turning bullish (Parabolic SAR)
CSC - turning bullish (Parabolic SAR)
Swiber (related to Swissco) - turning bullish (Parabolic SAR)
Hongwei - turning bullish (Parabolic SAR)
Jardine C&C - already bullish, rallying. Counter like this ( pricey ), I prefer to buy on dip.
SGX - already bullish, rallying. Counter like this ( pricey ), I prefer to buy on dip.
Plenty more counters in my TA scanner radar......!!
When upper band of Parabolic SAR hits the daily prices, the counter(s) may just rally suddenly. Amazing !
The following two counters should turn bullish based on Parabolic SAR but probably need 1 - 2 more sessions:
JurTech ( not a buy call, just some good news for "stuckist" )
Fu Yu ( not a buy call, just some good news for "stuckist" )
-
Cosco update:
Based on Parabolic SAR, Cosco has entered buy phrase. However, MACD crossover hasn't taken place yet but should be catching up soon ( provided if there is no bear raid ). MACD is lagging indicator so this is normal. There is a conflicting signal from Candlestick though. Candlestick shows a "shooting star" today. But the impact from candlestick usually last only for day(s), won't affect the bullish cycle too much. Moreover, Singapore market does not necessary heed candlestick very well due to our low liquidity versus Japan or US market. $5 is a very stubborn resistance. Even before the major correction last week, Cosco was having lots of difficulty to clear. I just don't have the patient to wait. Once cleared, I think Cosco may retest $5.7.
-
All the above observations are valid provided there is no bear raid !!
Labels: Stock Pick
Trading Digest 8/23
Intrad-day Update (updated at 3:05pm):-
1. Dow rallied 145.27 points on light volume to close at 13,236.13 as investors risk appetite returns and M&A talk. There were mixed view on whether Ben Bernanke will cut the Fed rate on 9/18 during the Fed Meeting. Dow Technical Ananlysis : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4H0tf0XDlI4 Dow has reached the 20 moving average as predicted. Tomorrow & the next few days may still see Dow to push up further on light volume ( probably to 50 moving average ). The date to look up for is around 8/28
-
2. Locally, STI looks set to open higher and will probably follow the strong movement of Dow overnight rally to retest 3,400. If STI is able to close on or higher than 3,411. This will be the first "Higher High" we see since the onset of the correction.
-
3. Cosco & PacificHC have both turned bullish. Cosco may retest $5 today. PacificHC is hard to say, it may just trade sideways noting its weird behavior.--
4. Sigh ! At the rate it goes, Cosco will close with a doji today at evening star position or may even be a shooting star. That is not good for tomorrow. (3:05pm) Took profit on Cosco at $4.98 on concern it will give me a shooting star closing. Anyway, market is lossing momentum. Soon after exited, Cosco dropped to $4.92.
PacHC, there is a big block of buy queue ( 100 lots ) at .36 and a big block of sell queue at .405 ( 116 lots ). With the extreme low liquidity, how to cheong?
-
5. Longcheer - I hope it can push up to .63 today to turn itself into bullish counter. If it does, there should be chance to push all the way to .71.
Freightlink - already in the bullish zone but like PacHC, this counter don't heed TA signal very well. But who know, there might be sudden spike.
-
5. DMG lifted the ban on contra for the 16 penny stock.
-
6. STOCK ALERT: SWISSCO $1.14 has just turned bullish based on Parabolic SAR. MACD should catch up soon.
Labels: Market Direction, Trading Digest
Trading Digest 8/22
STI : 3,321.50 ( +92.84 )........................................................Intra-day Update (Last updated: 2:20pm) :
-1. Wall Street ended mix with S&P500 and Nasdaq up but Dow dropped 30.49 points to 13,090.86 amidst concern on rising energy cost due to Hurricane. There is not much to say from the Dow Analysis today (more advertising than analysis):
Dow is expected to trade sideways with upward bias. It will take a week to two before Dow retest the support. The last part of the video talked about average up or average down, worth learning !
-2. Locally, STI is expected to range trade between Fibonacci 61.8% & 38.2% with up & down sessions. There is evdient from the chart ( click on the chart to see ) where there are some short term bullish signals. But I guess the most important "signal" is still the movement of Wall Street. So one should not be carried away by the STI analysis.
Note that STI dropped by 93 points yesterday and the closing was supported by Fibo 61.8%. It is amazing how support & resistance work. I may post some thoughts in the near future on Support & Resistance.
-
3. Invest Fair ( Aug 25, 26, 10am - 6pm, Suntec Exhibition Hall 404 )
-
-
5. ST Engineering coverage:
DJ MARKET TALK: Excellent Chance To Buy ST Engineering -Macquarie
0537 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: ST Engineering (S63.SG) offers rare combination of earnings visibility, growth, yield and attractive valuation, according to Macquarie Research. Says recent share price weakness is an excellent opportunity to accumulate shares; strongly reiterates Outperform rating, has S$4.00 price target. Adds that company's cash balance "gives STE the ability to make the most of depressed asset valuations and acquire businesses at attractive valuations." Trades up 1.7% at S$3.50 despite it being ex date for company dividend. (JEM)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 22, 2007 01:37 ET (05:37 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
ST Engineering is always a safe stock. I think the excellent chance was last Friday. Some time, we need to be careful with coverage like this in case someone talk you into buying because they are selling. But Kim Eng also has coverage today:
-
6. STOCK ALERT:
JIUTIAN CHEMICAL - A market darling for the past ten months has now dropped to $1.86 from a high of $3.08 one month ago. Merrill Lynch is offloading their holding. That could be one reason. Another could be due to the impending share spilt of 1 : 5. On 7/24, CIMB rated a T/P of $3.15 and DBSV rated a T/P of $3.6
Labels: Market Direction, Trading Digest
Trading Digest 8/21
STI : 3,228.66 ( -93.72 )-
Pacific-HC ( This is not a buy call. In fact, I am dieing to exit )Last Friday, I posted my observation on PacHC in this blog ( Aug 17 ). Today, what I have observed comes true again. This is the 2nd time the same thing has happened. Someone gobbled a few levels of sell queues just minute before closing on a down day. My sell order at .395 was partially filled ( 1/3 ) !
With the rally, PacHC has entered into bullish zone. However, I am not sure if bullish signal can be taken in this market. On July 27, the closing price was pushed up several levels at the last few minutes too where STI was downed 87 points on that day. So it really seem like someone does not want the price to fall below .36 but they do not necessary bother if the price rally beyond .41.
Anyway, I will still exit tomorrow ( for the remaining lots ) regardless of whether it edges up any further. If it does, good for me. If it doesn't, no regret.**
..................................................
(8/22, 8:30am) - On 2nd thought, maybe I should heed the technical signal. Too many times I have allowed my emotion to out-rule the technical signal. So I may hang in there for 1 - 2 days and review the chart again. After all, it seems like someone is taking care of the downside. When it becomes too low, someone will push it up.
.........................................................Intra-day update ( updated: 4:45pm ):-
1. Dow edged up 42.27 points last night in choppy trading ( closed at 13,121.35 ). AM's prediction on Friday is once again correct. He now predicts that Dow will move sideways with some up sessions over the next one to two weeks. The exact timing is hard to predict and need regular review. After that, it will drop heavily to test the support. If the support don't hold, it will plunge by as much as 10% from there. Tomorrow is a day that look set to gap up based on technical. However, there were bad news released after the market closed today:
"Capital One Financial Corp. said Monday it will cut 1,900 jobs and shutter its wholesale mortgage banking business, a move that comes as lenders continue to struggle in the nation's housing and mortgage markets"
Detail of the Dow TA can be found here :
-
2. It looks like STI will be trading sideways with downward bias. Market is looking for new direction after the recent dip and rebound.
-
3. In a trending market, people are rushing for stock pick by mean of FA, TA, rumours, news, tips or tikum. The goal is to select a good counter that will "cheong" the next day or two. I think it is not time yet to resume that activity as the market is still very volatile and sensitive toward Dow movement and global financial news. Any counter you have chosen using whatever method will nose dive with the index during a brutal correction like last Friday. It may be wise to square as many positions as possible to hold cash and stay on the sideline. Bargain hunt on each major dip and take profit on each rebound will still be my strategy. The only problem with this is how to determine when is a good time to move in? What if after moving in, the next dip is greater than the present dip? This is exactly what has happened to my SGX bought at $9.05 early last week and dipped to $7.65 last Friday. The good news is, I have exited it this morning at $9.15 with a small gain good enough for a seafood meal. The idea is not about the gain but to square my position. I guess it is hard to determine "the best" timing. You will either have to take some risks on your positions or miss the chance. Solid bluechip like SGX did bounce back in no time. So it is important that only bluechip should be considered. For me, I will use STI as a guide. I will move in only if the correction hits -120 points. If the index hits -150 and above, I will consider it a real bargain. Again, I will only go for bluechip, more likely to be index linked. Why Index linked? When STI downed by 190 points, what causes it? Index linked stocks got whacked. When STI recovered by 190 points, what causes it? Index linked counters rally. So if you pick up the right index linked bluechip at the time when they were whacked badly, you stand to gain when the index rebounded. Bluechip like SGX, Jardine C&C, BukitSem, UOL, OCBC, ST Engineering ...etc. are still top in my list. They have behaved very well during the Friday bear raid. Most of them have recovered or are recovering well. SPH is very disappointing, it does not defend downward pressure but only upward pressure ! When the index dives, SPH dives faster than any counter. When the index recovered, it crawl slower than anyone else. I will write it off from my mind permanently !
Okay, lunch time !!
-
4. News From DMG:
With immediate effect, no contra is allowed on these counters:
Armarda
Equation
Jade
Magnus
Oculus
BBR
Ban Joo
Centillon
FirstLink
HLH
Lottsvission
Rowsley
Rowsley warrant
Auston
Unifiber
Alantac
HLH.
For outright buying of $ 20,000 and above , deposits into trust a/cs arerequired.
Labels: Trading Digest
STI : 3,322.38 ( +191.67 )
-
1. Local & regional bourses rebounded strongly today. STI closed up 6.1% or +191.67, the largest single day gain in five years. Although the EOD data from ChartNexus is not available yet, STI has definitely bounced back to Fibo 50% support level. However, this does not mean the correction is over. This is a technical rebound since the market has been way oversold. Believe it or not, with or without the Fed action on Friday, STI & regional bourses will still have some degrees of rebound today. The way the index was being pushed down by 190 points on Friday but reclaimed 170 points before closing has resulted to a "hammer look alike long legged doji in star position" confirmed by high volume. Technically, this is a very bullish signal. I have obviously under estimated the strength of this rebound in my wild prediction yesterday.
-
2. Some good news from China released by Reuters this afternoon:
China relaxes capital controls in boost for Hong Kong
BEIJING, Aug 20, 16:19 (Reuters) - China further loosened its capital controls on Monday to encourage money to flow out of the country and so tackle the economic problems generated by its record trade surplus. Residents will be permitted for the first time to invest directly in Hong Kong's securities market under a pilot programme to be launched in the northern port city of Tianjin, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said. Zhao Xiao, a professor with Beijing's University of Science and Technology, said it was the most important financial development this decade apart from China's accession to the World Trade Organisation in 2001 and the revaluation of the yuan in 2005. "If China wants to be an international player, it has to open its capital account, and it has to allow its residents to invest abroad," Zhao said. SAFE, the currency regulator, said it was acting because China had accumulated sufficient foreign exchange reserves -- $1.33 trillion at the end of June -- to satisfy individuals' growing appetite for overseas stocks.
What this means is that more liquidity will be injected to HSI in the coming months; which will definitely be good for Asian market.
-
3. "The Joseph Cycle"
Joseph Cycle Years
1959 Bottom
1967 Top
1973 Bottom
1980 Top
1987 Bottom
1994 Top
2001 Bottom
2008 Top
So even though I said the bull has not left us yet, the bull is getting old.
-
4. I was not online when STI dived down 190 points on Friday ( heng arh, or else I really need an ambulance ). So I did not benefit from the good bargain. However, I am making plan to ride on the next wave(s) since the wide spread belief is that the correction is not over yet. I have captured some price data from SI Station on Friday & today. I will evaluate to see which are the bluechip that have dived but rebounded well. I will also start to monitor the STI Put Warrant and may pick up some when I sensed signal of downside. Meanwhile, I need to get rid of some holdings as I am also a "stuckist" ( perhaps "forced investor" may sound nicer ). I need to get all the game plans drawn up before the next bear raid.
Labels: Trading Digest
Market Update - 8/18
(Last updated : Aug 19, 6:00pm)
Dow did gap up 300+ points Friday night per AMTA prediction and closed at 13,079.08, up by 233.30 points. Fed jumped in early Friday morning lowering the discount rate by 0.5% ( from 6.25% to 5.75% ) boosted market sentiment. This discount rate only covers loans the Fed makes to banks. It is not the Federal Funds rate, which has stood at 5.25 percent for more than a year. Fed has made no mention of its next move to the Fed Fund rate. The Fed Funds rate determines the rates that banks charge each other. Many have believed if the market doesn't get that rate cut, Friday's gains may not stick, especially since it's likely there will be plenty more news in the coming days and weeks of further troubles in the lending industry. Goldman Sach predicted the Fed will cut rate by 0.25% on or before 9/18 and perhaps two more reductions before end of the year.
- A.M maintains the worst is not over yet. He predicted Dow will rally early next week. After that, it will come back down to test the support and then will fall by 10% more. He said the current crisis resemble the one in 1907. I have done some research from the Internet, below was what happened in 1907:
The panic of 1907, also known as the 1907 Bankers' Panic, was a financial crisis in the United States. The stock market fell nearly 50% from its peak in 1906, the economy was in recession, and there were numerous runs on banks and trust companies. Its primary cause was a retraction of loans by some banksthat began in New York and soon spread across the nation, leading to the closings of banks and businesses. The severity of the downturn was such that it eventually pressured the United States congress to accept the proposal by a group of bankers to pass the Glass Owen Bill, essentially a blueprint of the Nelson W Aldrich plan that had been defeated in congress earlier. This bill allowed a group of bankers to create, buy the shares, and own the Fed Reserve System in 1913.
......................................
Well, the Ang Mo has been very zhun since I started paying attention to his video for over one week now. From the chart, I am kind of incline that even if STI has not reached bottom yet, it should not be too far away. This is also the view from fund houses & brokerage firms. But if the Ang Mo is correct again, given that the local & regional market are unable to decouple with Dow Jones. I am afraid the worst is not over yet too. Anyway, I guess STI should have some good time early next week as the bear is getting tire. But that does not mean the bull has won the battle yet. Other than the Sub-Prime & CDO issues, another issue; which is the rising Yen is emerging.
-
STI will gap up on Monday, that is no doubt about it. Immediate resistance is 3,220 - 3,250 ( Fibo 61.8%, 200DMA ).
My Take On Monday ( Added on 8/19 6:00pm )
Monday is a day to take profit if you have collected cheap on Friday. It is not a day to move in if you have not taken advantage of Friday. STI is likely to gap up 60 - 90 points upon open and push up to 100 - 120 points within the first hour. Those who have collected cheap on Friday are likely to take profit pulling the index back by late morning or afternoon. On Friday, most of the counters have dipped to very low when STI loss 190 points but they have reclaimed much of the losses before closing. So those who have collected near the lowest on Friday are already finding themself sitting on good profit. On Monday, after the initial gap up and some price chasing, this group of people will start to take profit and shortist will also come in. So the index will stablized again. Just my personal opinion, not based on TA, and I can be wrong.
......................................................................................
Finally, it is a pleasant surprise to learn that my blog is gaining recognizition. I found this out from the link here: http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/viewtopic.php?t=83111 Labels: Market Direction
Trading Basic - 4
Classical Analysis -
During adverse situation like now where prices are going through wild swing, most of the TA indicators fail to perform. TA indicators are extremely useful for trending or range bound markets. This is because they depend on historical price/volume data stretching as far back as 25 trading days. If you look at the recent brutal correction, it has only started since July 26; which is about 15 trading sessions ago. So TA indicators are lagging behind the facts. They are at best being able to suggest oversold or overbought. But you know very well prices can remain oversold or overbought for a long time.
-
Under this circumstance, we need to rest back onto the basic - Classic Analysis ! Contrary to TA indicators which apply formula to filter or smoothen the price/volume for the ease of making prediction, Classical Analysis rely on pure price/volume action to derive its observation.
-
Trendline, Support & Resistance, Chart Pattern Formation, Candlestick Formation and Fibonacci Retracement are examples of Classical Analysis.
-
Since the correction started, I have more or less abandoned the TA indicators and rest back on Classical Analysis. Words like "Higher High", "Higher Low" and "Lower High", "Lower Low" can be seen frenquently. I will use the chart below to elaborate a bit more on what they are.
-
Midas ( Uptrend )
The chart below shows an uptrend channel of Midas. It doesn't need any TA knowledge, anyone can tell it is an uptrend. However, this is true only because the chart has nicely formed. When it was deleveloping, you only see one candlestick a day. So how would you know it is an uptrend? This is where you need to look for a "High" in the closing price, then the next high must be higher than the previous high; which is "Higher High". Then when the price retreated, you get a "Low". And the next time when the price retrace again, the new low should be higher than the previous low; which is "Higher Low".
So once you see "Higher High" and "Higher Low". It is an uptrend.
Midas ( Down Trend )Apply the exact opposite, you will be able to determine this is a down trend. This time, you look for "Lower High" and "Lower Low".I will be patiently watching STI index and look up for "Higher Low" and "Higher High" !!
-
Finally, a few words on Fibonacci Retracement:
To determine the level of support. Pick a higest high and a lowest low. The 0% should be placed on the higest high and the 100% should be placed on the lowest low. The important supports are 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. 23.8% is not strong support, can be ignored.
To determine the level of resistance. Do the opposite. Place the 0% on the lowest low and the 100% on the higest high.
-
Article writen by Mimosa, all right reserved Aug 17, 2007.
Labels: TA Indicators, Trading Basic
Trading Digest 8/17
STI : 3,130.71 ( -21.45 )
-
1. It was another nerve wrecking day for STI & the regional bourses. STI took a dive to an intra-day low of 2,975 at 2:40pm ( -190.15 ) but reclaimed much of the early losses later to close at 3,130.71. Although the support at 3,050 was penetrated during intra-day, I would interpret it as that the index was being supported well at that level since it did bounce back. The more time the same level has been tested but go back up again, the more resilient the support is. But once it is broken eventually, it will turn into a stubborn resistance level.
-
2. At this time, it is really of no meaning to analyse too much on the individual counter. The market is going through a wild swing driven by sentiment & Dow's behavior. STI & the regional bourses are mimicking the movement of Dow. A closer look at Dow may present more clue to our own index movement. I will continue to stay tune with the AMTA ( Ang Mo Technical Analysis ) daily. If AMTA continued to be zhun for the next few days. Once he signals the 10% further decline of Dow, I may decide to cut loss in anticipation of the major turmoil here and will re-enter again when the dust get settled.
-
3. Some of the counters like Pacific Healthcare appears to be controlled. I saw huge ( relative to the liquidity of the counter ) buy queue at certain price level. It seems like someone is trying to prevent the price from falling further. Anyway, this is an unwitty buy based on strong broker call ! I will try to place my sell order daily at around .395 with the hope some days my order will be gobbled. It did happen before few weeks back prior to the correction. There was a large buy order a few minutes before closing gobbling few levels of sell queue and of course pushing up the price by a few bids too. I am hoping for this opportunity to come again so that I can offload this deadly baby!
...............................................................
CIMB VIEW
17 August 2007Singapore Strategy (NEUTRAL - Maintained)
Strategy - 2Q review: Best of times, worst of times
by Kenneth Ng
The current market sell-down runs contrary to the state of corporate earnings. In our review of Singapore’s 2Q07 results season, we saw EPS upgrades for all sectors except tech. Despite the good season, the STI hasgone into a free fall as credit worries dominate. Valuations are beginning to turn appealing. We suggest that at some point, valuations must triumph over sentiment again. In a rolling 12-month P/E band analysis, we take valuation markers from the last sell-down in mid-2006 and conclude that theSTI has another 4-6% downside risk, before reaching trough valuations. Wesay, keep your guns ready but the powder dry. Get in 2,950-3,040 levels.
Labels: Trading Digest
The Bear Is Taking Charge !
(Last edited on 8/17 Friday 6:50am)Just returned from a TA seminar at SGX.
Last month, the same seminar ( different topic ) was not only full house but the organizer must add chairs to accommodate to extra participants. Tonight, despite all seats were sold, I found plenty of empty seats around. I guess many were licking their wounds and too sad to socialize.
STI has broken the 200 DMA & 61.8% Fibonacci support today. Quoting what the trainer said tonight "If the index is above 200 DMA, the Bull is having fun. If the index is below the 200 DMA, the Bear is having fun". Although, this may not mean we have entered a long term bear market. The bear is certainly taking charge for now. The definition of a bear market, as I have heard from News Radio 938 Business News, is that if the Index falls by more than 25%. At this time, STI has not. And in fact for a healthy bull market to continue, a 10% - 15% major correction is necessary. So we could still be heading for the healthy correction unless the market worsen.
That said, 200 DMA & 61.8% Fibo are very important support levels. Since both have been broken today with a single day plunge heaviest in six years, this is no joke. The next support is really not a good TA support but if we must still give it a level, it will be 3,050 and 2.920. More sellings are probably lining up for the next few weeks. The market may not fully recover until your blood oozed out. Minor rebounds should still ocurr here and there but as the market move, there will be downward bias.
Heavy weight counter like Cosco has become joke of the night at the seminar as "Titanic"( you guys know what Cosco is doing right? Shipping Line ). Cosco has trend up too quickly from $2.75 to $5.7 within 4 - 5 weeks. Too much fat has been accumulated and thus during a bear raid like this, it is a big target.
This correction is like a "soft reset" so far. I hope it does not go any further to become a "hard rest". I will scale down my posting a bit as I also intend to stay at the sideline until the market becoming clearer. STI does not have a mind of its own. We are almost like trading the Dow maket. It is too risky to leave any position open subject to uncertainly overnight. Oh, I realized from my hit counter I have up to 170 unique hits daily ( excluding page reload ) which mean there are more visitors to my blog than I thought (from fellow forumers ba)! From the IP address, some are even returning 5 - 6 times daily ( multiple returns considered as 1 unique hit ). Thanks and I hope we will sail through the turbulence soon !! The Bull has not left us, just wounded and need time to heal.
Morning Update: Dow closed marginally lower at 12,845.78- (15.69). However the earlier losses at around 12:30am and 3am were scary (-343 points). It has tested the Fibo 61.8% (12,731) several times but fortunately closed above it. I hope STI will interpret the good last minute rebound of Dow as a positive sign and stage our own rebound today. In view of the Dow move, it is not safe to short the market, I think !
Market Correction Technical Analysis series ( A must to view ):
The Ang Mo said Dow will have a few days of push up from now. BUT the worst is not over yet. Dow has only dropped by 10% so far, another 10% more to go!!
Tonight ( Friday for US ), Dow will gap up. Monday, Tuesday, Dow may still have good time. After that, Dow will come down and test the support. And will fall by another 10% !
Believe it or not, this Ang Mo is damn Zhun! I have been following his series for a week now.
Labels: Market Direction
Give me the Bull or an Ambulance !
keke...just kidding, my positions are quite small really. Although I am weak in trading emotion, enter even when I know Uncle Dow stop playing yo-yo but switched to sell Shampoo, my minimum discipline of 35% bullets is still there. I probably won't average down but may average up on technical rebound because you just won't know when is the bottom. This is free fall... sigh ! Double Bottom Formed?
Above is the 10 minutes chart from SI Station. Watching to see if this is a double bottom formation !? If true, a rebound may be stagging.- DJ MARKET TALK: STI Off 4.6% At 5-Mo Low; May Fall Below 3100
0436 GMT [Dow Jones] Redemptions by hedge funds wiping out nearly all of STI's gains this year, pushing benchmark down 4.6% to 5-month low of 3122.87 at midday. Index may even fall below 3100 later in day as current intraday trough already at 3104. "It's basically hedge funds redeeming their investments and de-leveraging," says associate sales director at foreign brokerage; "funds are facing margin calls or have certain amounts that they want to sell but can't find buyers, so they keep selling. With redemptions, you can't really tell how much more selling there is." Penny shares equally hurt as UOB Sesdaq Index down 5.3% at 215.24. Broad market volume modest.
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 16, 2007 00:36 ET (04:36 GMT)
- Wow, it looks so promising to be a double bottom until the last two red candlesticks came up to spolit the show.
Maybe triple bottom, maybe bottomless !
Give up in monitoring. Leave it to him:
Labels: Market Direction
STI Direction - DBS Vickers
Hmm.... even the experts have such diverified view ( UOBKH versus DBSV )
DBSV is looking at the chart from "Eillot Wave" perspective. This is something I have not mastered. STI next support is 3,050.
-
Traders Spectrum Wired
Daily 16 Aug 2007DBS Group Research .
Equity Today’s Focus STI’s fall below 3300 on the close yesterday signals a continuation of the current Wave-4 correction. The significance of yesterday’s fall is that the index has fallen below the previous high of 3310 achieved in late February.
Near-term resistance is shifted lower to 3325-3350. Look for the index to head lower to the next near-term technical support is at 3150-3190. 3150 is a key 38.2% downward retracement. Minor technical bounces from there should be capped at 3325-3350. Aggressive short-term traders could trade technical bounces nimbly while more conservative investors should continue to stay out of the market or sell-into-strength at resistance and wait for lower levels, possibly at 2985 (50% downward retracement).
Labels: Market Direction
Trading Digest 8/16
STI : 3.152.15 ( -121.09 )
Intra-day Update:
-
0205 GMT [Dow Jones] SGX (S68.SG) off 8.9% at S$8.15, taking battering as STI slumps 4.3% as funds continue to bail out amid uncertainty in the U.S. SGX announces it has liquidated its entire portfolio of S$139 million invested with hedge funds, a move JPMorgan says is positive for the exchange. Says stock would now be governed largely by volume trends, which could be weak in a sideways market in the near term; says SGX stock could fall to S$7.10, suggests starting accumulation closer to S$8 level. JPM has Overweight rating, S$11.50 target price on SGX; support at S$8.00. (JEM)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 15, 2007 22:05 ET (02:05 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
......................................................................
Uncle Dow decided to sell shampoo and so DJIA tumbled again on Wednesday trading (-167.45 closed at 12,861.47); hitting four-month lows after Fed Reserve added more fund to the banking system but failed to quash investors' jitters about the problems in lending. CPI was up a marginal 0.1%.
I should have trusted the Technical Analysis ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8izg5KE0P_Y&eurl= ) and refrain from entering the market yesterday. Again, the decision was driven by poor emotional management out of hope, fear and greed. Now, probably have to endure through the rough-ride. May cut Cosco and add more to SGX or ST Eng. ChartNexus EOD data for Indices is always lagging in availability ( eg: 8/15 data is still not there yet ) making analysis a bit difficult ! My best hope ( not TA but HA where "H" is Hope ) is that STI may discount the Dow movement given our heavy sell down yesterday. But based on past sessions, STI has been quite unforgiving on Dow movement. Best bet is morning down, afternoon up or flat.
Stock to watch: China Hongx, SSH, Biosensors.
Labels: Trading Digest
STI Direction - UOB Kay Hian
UOB Kay Hian
Opportunity to go long.
The overnight fall in US indices will very likely be seen as a bearish sign by the market place. After all, the DOW broke below a previous low and as some analysts have seen it , a head & shoulder breakdown. We on the hand, had stated that the DOW was expected to correct but chart formations, wave pattern, CBOE put call ratios all suggest that this is a terminal move with support near 12900. We also see other signs which point to an imminent reversal. For the Singapore bourse, we the ST Index will on a worst case, drop towards 3260-3270. However, a more likely downside will be closer to 3300-3320. There are numerous signs which show a bottoming out process in the near term. Subsequently, we could see a rebound towards 3470- 3500. As such, we recommend accumulating on present weakness. For a list of some our preferred stocks, please refer to our earlier mail.
Labels: Market Direction
Trading Digest 8/15
STI : 3,273.25 ( -113.34 )
-
This is really a blood shedding day! What kind of bear is this? Much fiercer than I have expected !
All eyes will be on Dow tonight. Unfortunately, it does not look good (Dow Future down 65 points) ! On the other hand, I am glad STI closed with triple digits drop. Our severe decline of 3.3% today may help to discount the impact of any marginal drop in Dow ( I hope ) unless the drop is more than 150 points ! Overall, I think the strategy of "buy on dip, sell on rebound" make sense. But timing is an issue. I think I need to enable the "Dynamic Chart" in SI Station to help on this. I have thought that I am an EOD trader and may not need that feature. But with the current situation, I am doing more and more momentum trade and swing trade, I think "dynamic chart" will come in handy !
It seems like what I have learnt from the TA course can be quite correct: In a bull market, buy signal works better. In a bear market, sell signal works better.
Looking forward for the TA seminar tomorrow night !
.........................................................................
-
Intra-day update:
-
At the closing bell, Dow ended its Tuesday trading with a sharp tail of -207.61 to close at 13,028.92. We are only 28 points away from breaking the 13,000 support level. The sharp fall was attributed by mounting concern of the credit crunch and weak consumer spending derived from poorer than expected quarterly result of Wal-Mart and Home Depot. Wall Street will release the CPI figure tonight. If the CPI number risen, Fed has no reason to inject more fund to the market. Technically, several US indices were spotted with "head & shoulder" pattern ( unfortunately, not the same as the shampoo! ). This is a bearish technical signal that indicate a possible dive of the chart. Detail of the technical presentation can be found here:
-
Those with higher risk profile may still find today a good opportunity for making some quick money. I will watch the market and may do so if I find the risk/reward ratio worthwhile. In any case, I will only be looking at the rock solid bluechip like SGX & defensive bluechip like ST Engineering. I have observed the pattern of these two counters for a while. They do bounce back quickly after the dive. SPH is another one can be considered during adverse situation like this.
-
The ideal situation is not to keep the holding overnight. Oh, remember, if you enter with CPF and exit the same day, you can ask your broker to convert the CPF trade into cash trade and pocket the contra gain in cash. Good luck folks!
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 8/14
STI : 3,386.59 ( +5.98 )
-
1. STI edged up slightly after recovering from intra-day loss. In the US, Dow closed down 3.01 points at 13,236.53. Fed has pumped in another $2b into the market to boost liquidity, this is the smallest amount in its series of operation. More on Dow can be found in the Technical Analysis here:
( The presenter is pretty pessimistic about the market. he predicted Dow will fall to March level which is around 12,000 )
-
2. If we put aside market sentiment, many stocks in my watchlist are presenting us with buying opportunities with technical buy signals spotted. Unfortunately, it is a struggle between believing in the buy signal or market sentiment. Those with deep pocket & risk appetite may choose to enter now. Otherwise, stay at the sideline for opportunity buy ( defensive play, buy on dip ). For me, I will go for defensive play as it is quite possible for more blood shed:
Counters with immediate technical buy signals:
Biosensors ($0.82) - based on Parabolic SAR, MACD crossover, WM%R (already rally today)
ST Engineering ( $3.76) - based on Parabolic SAR, MACD crossover, WM%R center line crossover
China Hongx ( $0.865 ) - based on Parabolic SAR, MACD crossover, WM%R center line crossover
Genting Int'l^ ( $0.88 ) - based on Parabolic SAR, MACD crossover, WM%R center line crossover
UOL ( $5.10 ) - based on Parabolic SAR only. Can still wait a while for MACD & WM%R for confirmation
Counters that are increasingly becoming more bullish but no buy signal yet:
Global Voice*^ - based on MACD Histrogram close with more green than red, & are moving toward zero line
Hong Wei - as above
SGX - as above
ASTI - as above
OCBC - as above
UIC - as above
Wheelock - as above
* Global Voice is small cap counters, upside are usually quite limited ( probably 3 cents or so? )
^ loss making companies
By the way, Freight Link shares the same technical observation as Global Voice.
-
3. Although Technical Trader believes almost everything ( market sentiment, fear, greed & hope...) are factored into the price and volume, I don't normally enter a trade simply based on technical buy signal alone. I will carry out further research such as:
a). If the counter has been downgraded by any fund house or brokerage firm. If so, I will avoid it;
b). If there is buy call made by fund house or brokerage firm. The more the merrier ( outperform, overweight...);
c). If there is any institutional investors, the more the merrier;
d) Visit the major forums to see what story others have to tell;
e) DJ Market Talk
These are the minimum I will vet through for short term trades. For mid term holding, I may go an extra mile to look at P/E, EPS, earning prospect...etc. Fortunately, SI Station provides all these with a right click.
-
4. SGX closed at $9.5, Jardine C&C closed at $14.00. Sigh !! I will be lying if I said I am not affected for taking profit too early !
-
5. As of the time this blog is last updated ( 11:30pm ), Dow is downed 162 points led by Wal-Mart reported weaker than expected quarterly result. If Dow does not regain the loss ground, tomorrow STI may mirror the movement and wash with red ink. My shopping list remain the same as 8/13 Monday.
Labels: Trading Digest
Stock Watch - China Hong / Global Voice
China HongXing ( last done $0.87 )
After watching this counter for 10 sessions, China Hongx appears to have bottomed at $0.69 on Aug 1. It is entering into a bullish reversal now. Technical buy signal emerged today with upper band of Parabolic SAR hitting daily prices. MACD line crossed up signal line ( Actually, the two lines have not crossed yet. It is touching each other now. Sometime, a "kiss of death" may happen. So tomorrow closing is very important )
China Hongx was featured in The Edge (current issue) for its robust sales of sport wears ( probably due to Olympics)
This view is subject to market sentiment. The market is extremely volatile now, market sentiment precede TA observation. This is not a buy call from Mimosa.
-
Global Voice ( last done $0.185)
I have exited this counter with some decent profit before but it is now catching my attention again. No immediate technical buy signal yet but there are early signs of bullishness. MACD line looks set to cross up the signal line. Parabolic SAR upper band looks set to hit daily prices. CMF in accumulation zone. WM%R looks set to cross center line. Again, no buy signal yet, just early signal. ABN AMRO has been accumulating their holding !
This view is subject to market sentiment. The market is extremely volatile now, market sentiment precede TA observation. This is not a buy call from Mimosa.
Labels: Stock Pick
Trading Digest 8/13
STI : 3,380.61 ( +21.43 )
-
SGX closed at $9.60 ! However, no regret in taking the profit too early. As the saying goes, "you won't go broke by taking profit". Also, "the stock market will still be there even after I died"..... China Hongx closed at $0.87. Technically, buy signal emerged only today based on Parabolic SAR & MACD crossover. However, market condition precede TA at this time. If nothing goes wrong with the market, China Hongx should be bullish !
-
..........................................................................................
Intra-day Update:
-
1. Exited SGX and Jardine C&C with a gain of $0.30 per share each ! Not bad for a trade of just over the weekend !
-
2. China Hongxing is moving since my previous few calls on 7/31, 8/3 & 8/6. More upsides expected. Not vested as my current strategy is buy on dip ( like what I did for SGX & Jardine C&C ). Will be patiently waiting for this type of opportunity.
-
3. Market has weakened slightly after the first half an hour, just nice for me to take profit and exit my position. Should the market weakens further, the following are possible entry as a bargain. These prices are Fibonacci support level, it is always good to buy at support, sell at resistance:
-
SGX ..........$9.05 (Fibo 50%), next support $8.7 (Fibo 61.8%)
ST Eng.......$3.56 (Fibo 50%), next support $3.45 (Fibo 61.8%)
Cosco........$4.74* (Fibo 50%), next support $4.45 (Fibo 61.8%) *updated, saw wrongly
Remember, don't chase the market. If the prices didn't fall to these levels, there is simply no buying opportunity. This is "defensive play", not the same type of "trade with the trend" game. 1 bid higher is probably okay.
-
China Hongx - may rally up to test .845, .89, .935 and 1.08 China Hongx may, on the other hand, present a trade with the trend opportunity judging at the recent performance.
-
4. Another way to trade the weakened market is to "short the counters you have". For example, if you are holding 50 lots of Cosco, you anticipate the price will drop as a result of the weakened market. You could sell off your holding ( let say at $4.98 ) and cover back the same quantity ( let say at $4.88 ) after it has dipped; before end of the day. This way, you still earn a contra gain of $0.10 per share and you continue to maintain your position. This is different from nake short. If you fail to cover back your position before end of the day, you have no fear of SGX covering it for you at T+3. The downside is if the volatility is not there where the spread is too narrow to make any gain.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 8/11
The local market is closed today.-DOW 13,239.54 (-31.4)
Dow closed down 31.14 points on Friday ended the week trading at 13,239.54. It was a difficult week with roller coaster ride. The index has dropped more than 200 points in early trading; Friday but regained some grounds after Fed injected $38 billion into the market to boost liquidity. The $38 billion was injected in three operations, $19b, $16b & $3b. The first operation is the single largest since August 15, 2003. On Thursday, Fed has injected $24 billion into the market also. The intervention and continual injection of fund by Central Banks could be construed as a panic. So it is hard to say if it is a helpful move.
Since Dow hits the record high of 14,000 on July 19, it has been traded in a zigzag manner with huge volatility. 11 out of 15 trading sessions have seen triple digits rise or fall. In the US, some researchers have called for Fed rate cut before the scheduled meeting on Sept 18 to be a more effective measure to calm the market. Per DJ Market Talk news this morning, analysts do not rule out Fed Reserve to cut rate from its present 5.25% before the next Fed meeting.
After gaining more insight in the US credit woe & its possible impact. It seems quite risky for small investors like me to still stay in the market.... Hmm... some thinking to do over the weekend. Investors here are likely to be very cautious too in the near term. This is an issue of confident so a full market recovery may not take place until the crisis is under control.
Commentary originated by Mimosa with input from CNBC, Yahoo Finance & DJ Market Talk
External Link to a YouTube TA (Very good) :
-
STI 3,359.18 (-53.99)
STI is obviously in the down trend. Support levels are 3,300, 3,210 & 3,050. However, some short term technical rebounds are possible after each major dip as both the index and majority of the counters are in oversold zone. Market has negated the news of the strong quarterly economic growth released on Friday. Perhaps Monday will find some laggard attention to this news from the market as reason for rebound. Any position taken at this time will involve risk of further downside. But "Opportunity Buy" with nimble action ( intra-day in/out, or 1-2 days contra ) are still possible. My positions on Jardine C&C and SGX were taken with this in mind. This is not the time to "let your profit run". Instead, it is advisible to put a "Trailing Stop" and cut your position promptly when the stop loss level is triggered. Bluechip only, no speculative counters please.
According to Technical Analysis, one should only move in when the coast is cleared, which is when a "higher low" and "higher high" is developed. At this time, such signal is not there yet.
Labels: Market Direction, Trading Digest
Stock Watch - Jardine C&C ($13.30)
Top loser today dips $1.60. Taken a small position mainly based on WM%R in oversold region. At $13.3, it has dipped below Fibo 61.8% and 200 DMA. Next support is 250 DMA. Probably safe to keep for near term rebound, if not keep it for mid-term.
Labels: Stock Pick
Trading Digest 8/10
STI : 3,359.18 ( -53.99 )
-
Update: Further to the Day Break below, STI did drop sharpy and penetrated through the 3.300 support.
Jardine C&C closed at $13.7 - Vested
SGX closed at $9.20 - Vested
China HongXing - The chart is looking better and better, this is one of the few which buck the trend today amidst the severe correction and closed up at .82.
...............................................................................
8/10 Day Break
Dow continued its wild swing after 3 straight sessions of gains to close down at 13,270.68 dipping 387.18 points. STI is expected to be whacked down after Wednesday's rally. So the decision to liquidate my Cosco and ST Engineering at breakeven may end up to be correct.
-
My bargain hunt watchlist (bargain hunt in stages of 35% bullets are still recommended):
SGX $ 9.05 ( queuing )
Cosco $ 4.78 or below will be bargin
ST Eng $ 3.56 or below will be bargain
China Hongxing around $0.69 will be bargain
-
STI Update:
As stated on Wednesday during the day break (removed now), someone suggested the gap down on Monday maybe Exhaustion Gap. The Wednesday rally has given hope to support that theory. However, STI has broken the support at 3.300 today and is currently ( as of the time with this update 9:50am ) sitting at 3,298. If STI dips below 3,295, it will post another "Lower Low". So the gap down on Monday may not be Exhasution Gap afterall.- Update: 10.05am - STI at 3,288, another lower low was scored.
Next suport is 200 DMA or 3,210 and 3,050.
Labels: Trading Digest
8/8 Trading Digest
STI : 3,413.17 ( +111.16 )
1. STI rally 111.16 points and closed above the 3,400 support level. Most traders and analysts have expected STI to open high and close flat or low due to the holiday on August 9.
-
2. Cut Cosco and ST Engineering at breakeven as both counters have been unable to break the resistance at my cost of entry. I do not want to risk the position given the market volatility over the National Day holiday. Will re-enter both counters at better cost should market pull back on Friday.
Labels: Trading Digest
Stock Watch - Genting Int'l ($0.87)
Some early signs of bottoming & a rebound seems to be staging:
MACD Histrogram turned green for the past three sessions
RSI is tilting up
Parabolic SAR upper band should hit daily prices soon
Again, these are just "early signs" subject to market sentiment. Current resistance is $0.89. Next two resistance are $0.92 and $0.94.
As above, a symmetrical triangle seems to be in the making since end Dec...................................................................
DJ MARKET TALK: UBS Ups Resorts World, Genting Target Prices
0218 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS keeps Buy on Resorts World (4715.KU) but ups target to MYR5.10 from MYR4.20; keeps Buy on Genting (3182.KU) but ups target to MYR9.80 from MYR9.20. Hikes in targets due to significant change in capital management. "We think consistent record free cash flow (FCF) from Genting Highlands is unlikely to be deployed to loss-making Star Cruises (S21.SG) in future. Meanwhile, Resorts has started buying back shares, marking the start of capital management," notes analyst Alain Lai. Adds, although Genting does not have the same themes as Resorts (US$1 billion cash, share buyback), Genting offers exposure to Sentosa IR through its 56% stake in GIL (G13.SG); Sentosa IR scheduled for completion only in 2009, but near term catalyst for Genting could be restructuring of non-gaming units. Note, Genting sold its paper division for MYR745 million in March, he adds. Resorts +0.5% at MYR4.48, Genting +3% at MYR8.60. (VGB)
Contact us in Kuala Lumpur. 603 2692 5254;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 23, 2007 22:18 ET (02:18 GMT)
.............................................................................................
Institutional Investors:
Kian Huat Realty Sdn Bhd
Genting Overseas Holding Limited
*note: this is not a buy call from Mimosa, trade at your own risk.
** corrected the closing price on Aug 7, it was $0.87, not $0.89
Labels: Stock Pick
Trading Digest 8/7
STI : 3,301.01 ( - 6.98 )
-
1. Uncle Dow enjoys playing yo-yo lately while STI is addicted with cha-cha. I can't imagine how volatile the market can be where DJIA can plunge 281.42 points on one day and gains back 286.87 points on the next day. The most ridiculous is that when Dow falls, STI follows, when Dow rebounded, STI passed ! It looks like the market will continued to be volatile and weak for a while more. I won't be surprised if the next two supports at 3,300 & 3,210 won't hold. In fact, 3,300 has been tested several times now, it may be broken as quickly as tomorrow ! Hopefully, STI can bottom at 3,050. Otherwise, it may dive to 2800+ as what OCBC has predicted several months back.
-
2. A this time, "opportunity buy" could prove rewarding after we have sailed out of the dark cloud. Bargain hunt of bluechip in stages may be a good strategy. Some scalping on selected counters can be considered.
Labels: Trading Digest
Stock Watch - China Hongxing
This counter has been in my radar since 7/31 ( updated on 8/3 ). China Hongx is one of the few stocks which survived the heavy sell down today. There is no immediate TA buy signal yet but the MACD histrogram is green for two days. Watch this during the rebound !
-
Three Institutional investors have vested interest in China Hongx:
Wasatch Advisers Inc
Barings Asset Management Limited
JF Asset Management
-
Update on August 7:
DJ MARKET TALK: China Hongxing +5.7%; DBS Vickers Ups Target
0134 GMT [Dow Jones] China Hongxing Sports (BR9.SG) +5.7% at S$0.835 on hopes company can sustain earnings growth momentum after 2.1X on-year jump in 1H07 net profit to CNY169 million. Revenue +42.6% at CNY899 million. DBS Vickers ups target price to S$1 from S$0.92 based on 24X FY08 P/E, keeps Buy call.
-
CIMB-GK Day Break ( 8/7 )
China Hongxing Sports (S$0.79) – 2QFY07 results – A winning first half
While Hongxing’s 2Q07 turnover was below our expectations due to greater-than-expected seasonal weakness, net profit was in line with consensus and our expectations, growing 79.4% yoy to Rmb90.1m. Excluding the amortisation of interest for RCPS, net profit would have grown 92.3% to Rmb96.5m. 1H07 turnover grew 42.6% yoy to Rmb898.9m while net profit grew 110.3% to Rmb168.8m. 1H07 gross margin was better than expected at 42.0% (vs. our forecast of 37.7%), an increase of 8.2% pts yoy, due to greater economies of scale, lower outsourcing costs and higher ASPs. We are maintaining our forecasts, pending an analysts’ briefing today. Maintain Outperform and target price of S$1.20, still based on 24x CY08 fully-diluted earnings, in line with peers.
-
MY VIEW: A good bargain shall be in the range of $0.6+
Labels: Stock Pick
Trading Digest 8/6
STI : 3,308.99 ( - 127.05 )
-
1. The market is very unforgiving about the 281.42 points of loss in Dow last Friday. It has given no mercy to the "discount" we have extended toward the rebounds Dow had on Wednesday & Thursday ( where we did not follow ). STI tumbled 3.7% today sitting at the fringe of the 3,300 support level. The support was broken several times at around 3pm. Next support is 3,210 which is 200DMA ( Fibo 61.8% ). With the sharp decline today, STI has scored yet another "Lower Low", which has confirmed its temporary ( I hope ) downtrend. Morgon Standley predicted more downside is to be expected and the entire correction may last for several more weeks.
-
2. Again, TA is not very useful in a volatile market like this where investors sentiment precede indicators. Based on TA, most of the counters including STI Index are probably in the oversold region. However, if everyone are expecting more downside, there will probably be more downside.
-
3. Is this a good time for bargain hunt? I guess it is quite okay if you don't already have high holding or sitting at paper loss. Maybe do it in stages ( 35% of your bullets each dip ) just in case the bottom fish you thought you have caught are falling knife ! Any action is advisable to be nimble. This may not be the right time to buy and hold for long term. Take short term positions, enter and exit many times for small profits.
-
4. This correction has given us a good lesson in knowing "cheap" & "expensive" are relative. When UOL was trading at $5.90 or $6.05 two to three weeks back, $5.8 seems so cheap to enter. Never would anyone could imagine the market will allow you a chance to enter anywhere lower than $5.8. Today, it has hit an intra-day low of $4.86 !! So, don't chase the price !
Labels: Market Direction, Trading Digest
Market Outlook
I attempt to analyse the market, but there is really not much to tell. Everyone know the market is bearish, no need Technical Analysis. TA is useful in trending market to predict trend continuation or reversal. In a volatile market like this, daily market movement is hard to predict and thus TA is lagging the actual sentiment.
From the daily chart (below), past few days closing presented a worrying trend. There were "Low", "High", "Lower Low" and possibly the "Lower High". If STI is to be washed by red ink again on Monday / Tuesday and does not close any higher. Another "Lower Low" will be formed. This is a sign of trend reversal according to classical analysis. Of course, this could be short term as the same has happened in the March before and the market did bounce back. But the trendline has been broken and so there is valid concern of the near term movement.
There is a consolation though ! From the weekly chart, the weekly candlestick seems to indicate a possible reversal is in sight ( ie: STI may close higher for the week of Aug 6 - 10 ).
The best case scenario is that STI may struggle to decouple with Dow Jone. Last Wednesday & Thursday, Dow gained a total of 250 points but STI did not follow. Although Dow loss 281 points on Friday, the net loss was only 31 points. So STI has no reason to over react to the Friday plunge of Dow since it did not react to the rebound also. Shanghai was not affected at all by the recent volatility of Dow anyway. That said, it is hard to expect STI not to respond to Dow at all. There are shortist out there who have been waiting for the opportunity to short the market. There might be forced selling, margin calls...etc. which will drive the market into red. Hopefully, after some whacking in the morning, STI could close flat or narrow the losses. On the worst case, Monday close low but Tuesday recover. However, the sub-prime and CDO problems will linger for quite a while. Since the major local banks do have exposure to the CDO, hopefully it will not pose a thread to the market here.
Labels: Market Direction, Trading Digest
Trading Basic - 3
Trading Emotion. Is Technical Analysis a waste of time?Why did I ask in the first place since I have been advocating TA throughout this blog? Because I am stuck with some Cosco & ST Engineering during the "bargain hunt" on Wednesday that was not bought at the best price ! I got Cosco at $5.0 & ST Eng at $3.66 in the morning but both plunged further in the afternoon to $4.72 & $3.56. So is TA useless since I am a TA practitioner?
No, I don't think it is useless, I think it works.... take a look at my post dated 7/28. This is what I have stated:
Cosco
- My View: Friday closing at $5.15 did not reach WM%R oversold threshold. A good bargain should be anywhere between $4.7 - $4.96. May queue at $4.94 ( 6 bids away ) on Sunday night.
ST Eng
- My View: As guided by WM%R, $3.68 is not far from "good buy" (oversold threshold). Anywhere below $3.68 ( especially if it is near the two supports of $3.56 and $3.45 ) are good bargain. This counter is safe to keep even if STI suffers from sustain bearish condition. May queue fat $3.56 ( 6 bids ) on Sunday night.
So what has gone wrong? The answer is emotion linked to Hope, Greed & Fear!! I am unable to overcome my emotion. Despite I know what is a good bargain and what is not. I rushed in with the fear that the market will leave me out, with the greed to make the most out of market bottom & with the hope the market will rebound strongly! This is why professional trader advocates the use of mechnical trading system. No emotional, no hope, greed & fear ! If I have adhered to my own teaching, I wouldn't be holding on to two 'submarine' now!
Another common trade mistake out of trading emotion committed by many traders:
.So don't blame TA !! .
TA has also given hint to the present correction as depicted in my post dated 7/21:
. STI by itself has shown lots of weakness lately. Some divergence between the weekly price movement and the TA indicators are in the making:
The mini correction of 67 points on Wednesday is not what I am expecting for. In order for STI to continue the bull journey, a larger correction much like the one in early March is probably inevitable.Labels: Trading Basic
STI Direction
Despite Dow reclaimed 250 points in two straight sessions, investors here appear to be very cautious. This weekend, I will take a closer look at the STI Index and will provide my view here. At this time, it does not look too good from TA perspective. I have seen "lower low" formed but I have not seen "higher high". If time permits, I will also add more thoughts to "Trading Basic".
..................................................
DJ MARKET TALK: STI +0.8%; 3500 Resistance; Profit-Taking Tipped
0129 GMT [Dow Jones] STI +0.8% at 3463.65 as most components higher amid region-wide gains. Phillip Securities says while volatility, uncertainty still high, a convincing break for STI above 3450 suggests more upside ahead; "with Wall Street's push last night, it's likely to attempt another hike towards 3500." But benchmark may struggle to clear 3500 as investors likely to book gains later in day ahead of weekend, more U.S. economic data tonight. Venture (V02.SG), CityDev (C09.SG), SIA (S55.SG) among top gainers. Broad market volume subdued, though gainers beating decliners by about 6 to 1. (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires August 02, 2007 21:29 ET (01:29 GMT) Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
-
STOCK WATCH ( Update: 8/3 )
CHINA HONGXIN ( Last Traded $0.795 as of 7/21)
This counter has been trending down since 7/18 from a historic high of $1.08. Current support at 100DMA. No TA buy signal yet but good to watch as this is a resilent counter, will make a come back when it has bottomed.
Since 7/21 when I first mentioned about this counter, it has dipped to $0.73 yesterday and begin to rebound today to hit a day high of $0.83
Labels: Market Direction, Trading Digest
Dow Jone - Another Late Day Gain (+100.96)
DJ MARKET TALK:US Stks Make Another Late-Day Gain; Dow Ends +0.8%
2159 GMT [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks in another late-session upswing, helped by M&A news; DJIA +0.8% with rise coming in last hour of trade, Nasdaq +0.9%, Philly semicons off 0.2%. "Clearly, program trades by institutions or big buyers are spurring these late session moves," says analyst; "they may be by bargain hunters or through models that trigger asset allocation shifts" when stocks and/or indices hit certain levels. Weight Watchers +10% as 2Q net income hit $58 million. CheckFree +23%; online check and bill-paying company will be bought by Fiserv for $4.4 billion. Nokia's ADRs +8.8% as world's largest cellphone maker said 2Q net profit more than doubled. Mattel lost 1.7%; in one of most high-profile incidents yet involving safety of China-made toys, Mattel's Fisher-Price unit will recall 967,000 toys that may contain hazardous levels of lead paint. Dell +1.5% as plans to buy ASAP Software unit of Corporate Express for about $340 million. MasterCard continued decline, off 4.9% and now showing double-digit percent drop over two sessions; fell 6.7% Wednesday amid concerns about ability to maintain growth momentum if consumers begin to tighten wallets. Countrywide Financial, largest U.S. mortgage lender, +2% after-hours as tried to soothe liquidity concerns as smaller rival teeters on brink of bankruptcy; said it has experienced no disruption in financing day-to-day ops, noted main mortgage business has access to nearly $50 billion of "highly-reliable" short-term funding as cushion.(RXM)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 02, 2007 17:59 ET (21:59 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 8/2
STI : 3,435.46 (+3.75)
1. STI gap up 42 points to open at 3,473 . However, much of its morning gain was erased before the mid day break. The index has broken the 3,400 support just before lunch break. Although it has picked up again in afternoon trade, the support at 3,400 has been tested once now. Based on my TA on 7/27, the next support is 3,310 if 3,400 is broken. The divergence in RSI spotted in my post 7/21 seems pretty accurate in pridicting the trend.
2. So is STI heading for a trend reversal ? It is still too early to tell. We need to closely monitor the movement of upcoming days/week to observe each peak & trough to determine if higher high, higher low ( bullish, uptrend continued ) or lower high, lower low ( bearish, trend reversal ) take place,
3. When the market is bullish, the analysis is focused on the stock. When the market is bearish, the analysis has shifted to the index and sentiment.
Labels: Trading Digest
Jittery Rebound
Although Dow rebounded 150.38 points overnight, the rebound did not happen until the last few minutes. DJIA was bouncing above and below the zero line several times before the rally took place prior to closing.
STI seems to be following the same pattern today. It opened with a decent rebound but soon pulled back and dip into negative territory. It is right now hovering at the boundry up and down. Looks like investors confident were shaden by the heavy selling yesterday. Good earning from UOL and other bluechip did not lift sentiment.
.......................................................................
DBS Vickers - Singapore Equities (Aug 2)
Since closing at a record high of 3665 on July 24, The Singapore equities market has fallen by more than 5% over the past week, with the decline last Friday, compounded by yesterday’s decline of 3.3%.
The heightened volatility is being blamed on the US Sub-prime contagion risk. The concern is not so much the impact on already grudging US economic growth, but rather the potential contraction in availablity credit to fuel further liquidity inflows into already lofty global asset markets.
Asian markets will get respite from the higher close on wall street overnight, with the Dow vaulting from a 60 pt decline to a closing gain of150 points or 1.1% on the day. Our technical analyst expects the STI to bounce back towards the 3500 level (maximum of 3545). However, the charts suggest that a second down leg may be in the works thereafter. As such, a trading stance is advocated amidst the current volatility in global markets.
Amongst the large caps, stocks such as Cosco and Sembcorp Industries appearto have been the most oversold, and should stage a healthy rebound. Amongst mid caps, Fibrechem should get a boost from the strong results, and Midas should get a lift from strong results anticiapted on August 7.
.......................................................................
DJ MARKET TALK:REPEAT:STI Up;Not Yet Time For Aggressive Buys-DBS
0633 GMT [Dow Jones] STI swings back into positive territory, +0.7% at 3457.05, as investors pick up shares of fundamentally strong companies sold down heavily earlier; now +0.8% at 3457.79 with UOB (U11.SG), DBS (D11.SG), Venture (V02.SG), Cosco (F83.SG) among gainers. STI may still end lower amid weakness in other Asian markets; possible resistance at day's high of 3584, support at 3375. "We would not advocate aggressive bargain hunting as yet, until we are clearly out of the woods in terms of market volatility," says DBS Vickers; "as long as market direction remains uncertain, the flight to quality and preference for liquidity is likely to result in further consolidation for small and mid-cap stocks as a whole, regardless of the fundamentals." Broad market volume still moderate, suggesting restrained buying. (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 02, 2007 02:33 ET (06:33 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
....................................................................
DJ MARKET TALK: STI Off 0.9%; 3375 Initial Support Tipped
0440 GMT [Dow Jones] STI fails to hang on to morning's gains, slips below 3400 for first time since May as investors sell on strength on concerns over more subprime-induced downside in near term. Index down 0.9% at 3399.56 midday vs high of 3486.66; initial support tipped at 3375. "Weak (U.S.) economic numbers and poor market breadth, as well as erratic trading patterns on Wall Street do not make for a convincing rally, and today's gains will just as easily be erased," says Phillip Securities. Broad market volume modest. Penny stocks mildly higher with UOB Sesdaq Index +0.1% at 250.37. New listing Dutech (CZ4.SG) most active on SGX, +59% at S$0.525. (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 02, 2007 00:40 ET (04:40 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Labels: Trading Digest
UOL - Buy on rumor sell on news ?
Despite posted excellent result, UOL slipped 20 cents as of the time this post was made and traded at $5.05. The notion of "Buy on rumor sell on news" seems quite true? Many brokerage firms and fund houses have upgraded UOL's target but failed to lift prices.DJ MARKET TALK: UOL Group May Rise; 2Q07 Net Profit +5.2X
2359 GMT [Dow Jones] UOL Group (U14.SG) may test last week's highest close of S$5.65 on hopes developer will continue to benefit from buoyant residential, hotel demand in Singapore. 2Q07 net profit +5.2X on-year to S$286.3 million on higher valuations for its investment properties, stronger home sales. Excluding revaluation gain, pretax profit +69% at S$91.2 million. Revenue +24% at S$201.6 million on higher investment income, progressive recognition of sales of units in various residential projects, higher contributions from hotel operations in Singapore, Australia, Vietnam. Stock down 2.8% at S$5.25 yesterday. (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 01, 2007 19:59 ET (23:59 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.DJ MARKET TALK: UOL +1%; DBS Vickers Ups Target To S$6.80
0119 GMT [Dow Jones] UOL Group (U14.SG) +1% at S$5.30 on hopes developer will turn in strong FY07 earnings after 2Q07 net profit +5.2X on higher valuations for investment properties, stronger hotel demand, home sales. DBS Vickers ups net profit forecasts for FY07, FY08 by 123%, 25% respectively to reflect higher assumed selling prices for Duchess Residences, revaluation gains from investment properties. Also, raises target price to S$6.80 (parity with RNAV) from S$6.70, keeps Buy call. Thin volume suggests stock may struggle to clear this week's highest close of S$5.40. (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 01, 2007 21:19 ET (01:19 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 8/2
How much further can it fall? (By OCBC)
- On 16th July, we issued a report warning investors of an imminent correction that would unfold in the market. Two weeks later, the STI has fallen approximately 7%. -The rebound that occurred on 30th and 31st of July failed to break above the lower band of the trend channel that the STI was trading in the last 4 months. This signaled the correction is yet to be over. -We observed the volume on the sell down has been gradually rising, indicating there could very likely be more downside in the near-term. -The short-term price indicators have yet to enter oversold regions, hence we could witness the index slip further from here on. However, the intraday stochastic has fallen into oversold regions, which could result in a nearterm bounce, before the STI resumes its slide downwards. -We forecast support within the 3,250 - 3,350 range. This range was the level at which the index reversed trends between Feb - Apr 07. Should this support fail to hold, the STI could very likely find a base around 3,050. -Immediate resistance set at 3,650 and 2nd resistance set at 3,870.Labels: Trading Digest
Cocos Update
DJ MARKET TALK: UBS Ups Cosco Target To S$6; Still Rates Buy
0558 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS ups target price for Cosco (F83.SG) to S$6.00 from S$4.59 after raising FY08-09 EPS forecasts by 7%, 8% respectively to reflect strong orderbook, which stands at S$5 billion year to date; "we believe that the order books will continue to grow; Cosco Corp is still offering 2009 delivery slots, for which demand remains firm." Keeps on Buy call. Stock down 3.7% at S$4.96 midday. (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 01, 2007 01:58 ET (05:58 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
....................................................................
DJ MARKET TALK: CIMB Ups Cosco Target To S$6.20; Keeps Outperform
0351 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CIMB ups Cosco (F83.SG) target price to S$6.20 from S$5.50 after raising FY08 P/E multiple to 30X from 27X to bring stock in line with Chinese peers; "the group's long-term growth is being sustained by its continuous expansion." Cosco seeking to boost docking capacity 57% to 2.73 deadweight tons by 2010. Broker says while 2Q07 net profit of S$80.4 million came in 8% below its forecast, there's no cause for concern as substantial orders secured year to date yet to be recognized. Keeps Outperform call. Stock down 3.3% at S$4.98. STI down 2.8%. (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 31, 2007 23:51 ET (03:51 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
....................................................................
DBS Vickers: Cosco Corporation A sterling performance
Story: Net income for 2Q07 soared by 58% y-o-y to S$80.4m, within expectations, driven by strong repair and marine engineering earnings aswell as strong rates for its bulk carriers. Excluding S$6.0m gain from vessel sale in 2Q06, net profit growth was higher at 78%.
Point: We expect a stronger 2H, under pinned by contributions from two new docks, an 80kdwt and 300'dwt, which commenced operations from Mar and June2007 respectively. We expect more offshore projects to be awarded as thegroup has capacity for delivery in 2009. Shipping will benefit from risingcharter rates.
Relevance: Cosco’s current order book of US$3.3bn provides visibility up to2010. Maintain Buy, with a target price of S$6.10, based on SOP valuation.
Labels: Stock Pick
Trading Basic - 2
The Bull / Bear Story
During a BEAR raid, the weak animals (speculative stock) will be badly hurt.The stronger animals (fundamentally sound and cheap) may still roam around, but with lots of caution. The BEARS are itself a HUGE creatures. They are not afraid to challenge the toughest animals to a sparring session. Strong animals which are too fat after much feasting during the BULL runs are also possible victims in a BEAR raid too. Only after the bears have satisfied themselve of the toughness of the strong animals would it then be left alone.For all cases, the weak or strong animals would react similarly on the first instance of a BEAR raid. All would go into hiding and starvation,while the hungry BEARS roam around freely in large numbers. When the coast is clearer, those stronger animals (fundamental stock) with better skills (cheap valuation) will dare to venture out to look for better nutrition. They will likely to recoup much of their weight loss. Many others (sound company but not cheap) would have lacklustred performances. They would stay trim so that the bears would find them too thin a prey to feast on. Survivor is upmost important. They stay near their hiding area feeding on only roots and plants, waiting for the next bullrun.Worst affected will be the weaker animals (speculative / no fundamental). They may be shell-shocked and paralyse after the BEAR raid. They live like a hermit, getting thinner. LTH
Labels: Trading Basic
Trading Digest 8/1
STI: 3,431.71 ( -115.95 )
IS IT TIME TO BARGAIN HUNT? ( BY OCBC )
Since hitting a closing high of 3665.13 on 24 Jul (+23% YTD), the STI has been down in 4 out of the last 6 days. Brought on by another round of selling on Wall Street last evening, the STI saw further weakness this morning. As of mid-day close, STI is down 101 points or 2.9% (or down 6% from recent high).
This is the same for the UOB SESDAQ index. At the recent high of 302.64 last week, it was up 111% for the year and was among the best performing indices in the region. Today, very aggressive selling brought the index down 23.6 points or 8.5% to 255.22 as of mid-day close. This means the index is now down 15.7% from recent high. This is to be expected after the recent strong gains for small-to-mid cap stocks, as downwards pressure is also going to be just as strong.
This is not helped by average daily trading volume topping 4.4m in Jul,versus only 2.8m in May. This meant more transactions and now there aretalks of more force selling and margin calls, which led to the extremely weak sentiment this morning and the resultant sell down for the UOB Sesdaq.
Market volatility is likely to persist for the near term due to credit concerns in the US as confidence is now hurt by the selling pressure.However, as prices correct across the board, the fundamentally sound companies are also starting to show value. We have attached here a list ofsome of our picks, which on price weaknesses, present good opportunities tobuy into these companies for medium-term exposure.
Aug 1, 2007, The Straits Times
Tony Tan warns of dark clouds on horizon for markets
US sub-prime woes, oil prices pose risks, but GIC has taken 'necessary caution'
By Erica Tay
THERE are 'dark clouds on the horizon' for financial markets that ought to be acknowledged and heeded, said Dr Tony Tan, deputy chairman of the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC). These risks include tightening credit due to the United States sub-prime mortgage crisis which may lead to 'reversing the sea of liquidity in the past'. ..... The second is the rise in oil prices...... ( more from ST Aug 1 )
DJ Singapore Shares End Down; Strong Earnings Fail To Halt Slide
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Singapore shares fell sharply Wednesday as worldwide credit concerns provoked a selldown, despite a series of positive earnings reports. Traders said there is more downside on the horizon.
"The trigger is the American home mortgage situation. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently supported at 13,200. This support will probably be broken tonight after being tested four times. Based on that, there's more downside on the horizon for the Singapore market," a trader at local brokerage said.
The benchmark Straits Times Index closed down 115.95 points, or 3.3%, at 3431.71. In the broader market, losers beat gainers 1,014 to 110. Volume was 4.9 billion shares, compared with 3.5 billion shares traded Tuesday. OCBC Investment Research said investors fear the market's weakness could gain momentum. "There are talks of more force selling and margin calls, which led to the extremely weak sentiment," it said in a report.
-By Andrew Cedotal, Dow Jones Newswires; (65) 6415 4154; andrew.cedotal@dowjones.com
-Edited by Matthew Oakley
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 01, 2007 06:18 ET (10:18 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Labels: Trading Digest
