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Freight Link Update
Freight Link has been trending down since 7/24. It has pierced through several levels of support including $0.13 (Fibo 38.2%), 100days MA and $0.12 (Fibo 50%). The next support are $0.11 (Fibo 61.8%) and $0.105 (200days MA). If $0.105 does not hold, it may free fall to $0.075!
Technically, MACD, RSI & WM%R are all trending down which is conflunce with the daily candlestick movement. However, one consolation !! If you go thru' the "Bollinger Band" depicted in the "Technical Indicators" series in this blog. You will find this text in there:
Stock price touches the lower Bollinger Band and RSI is less than 30==> A relative low in the stock price may have been reached and an upturn in stock price may occur in the near term.==> Buy stock, Buy calls, Sell OTM covered calls
This is the observation currently as shown in the chart above. Hopefully, the price has bottomed.
Labels: Stock Pick
Trading Basic - 1
Average Down or Average Up
Quite often, after you have taken position on a counter. The prices move against you ! What are the options available to you?
1. Cut loss ( the only option professional traders with good discipline will pick )
2. Keep it under your pillow and go through the rough ride ( causal investors with deep pocket will pick this )
3. Average down or average up ( the vast majority may consider this )
When come to averaging, there is always two schools of thought. While most will advise you to average down, others may argue to death and maintained that this is a bad idea. This group believes should averaging is the only consideration, you should average up instead of average down. I guess there is no right or wrong answer. It is very subjective depending on the belief of the trader.
Average Down is to pick up more on the way down and wait for the rebound. This will obviously be able to lower your paper loss. But it will also mean more money are stuck for an unknown period of time (for the rebound). The opportunity cost of utilizing the same amount of money for other counters with better prospect is often why the 2nd group would criticize this approach. The worst case scenario is that after you have averaged down, the price falls again. So how many times are you able to chase the price downward to reduce your paper loss is a key question. When will the stock move is the next most important question. Soaking more money in to a loss making counter will prevent you the opportunity from making money elsewhere.
Average Up is to pick up more on the way up when the loss making stock started to move. For example, if you purchased Longcheer at $1.20 back in January. It is now traded at $0.74. When Longcheer start to breakout at $0,80, you will pick up more at $0.80 - $0.90 ( still considered as "average down" if you compare with $1.20 ). And maybe more at $0.95 .... This way, money are not stuck when the stock is not moving although the paper loss will look ugly forever which is bad for the psychology! Average up is not entirely problem free. What if the breakout is a false breakout or a bull trap?
Labels: Trading Basic
Trading Digest 7/31
STI : 3,547.66 ( +21.37 )
1. STI continued the rebound yesterday but somehow it has displayed some degrees of fatigue on its momentum. Although the index was up, losers lead gainers in the ratio of 573/376. It is not uncommon for the market to pull back again following a rebound after a correction.
2. Yong Xin Int'l IPO started trading today. The IPO price was $0.30 and opened today at $0.90. Wow, will China HongCheng open at $1.50 since it is priced at $0.50 !? Last week, Avi-Tech IPO was traded at around $0.75 where the IPO price was $0.33. Hmm... I am looking at $0.80 or so for China HongCheng.
Update: Yong Xin closed at $0.705.
Lesson learnt: Should sell within the first 15 minutes when the IPO counter started trading.
3. Cosco Update: Released its Q2 result after the market has closed. The result looks pretty good! Hmm... tomorrow may gap up and again it may take off without me ! But... another scenario could be that it will gap up upon open but pull back after a while since the earning has already been factored in the existing price as well as the effect of "buy on rumor sell on news !"
July 31, 2007 05:09 ET (09:09 GMT)
DJ Cosco Corp 2Q Net Profit S$80.4M Vs S$51.0M
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)-- Cosco Corp. (Singapore) Ltd. (F83.SG) said Tuesday its second-quarter net profit rose 58% on-year due largely to a strong expansion of its shipyard operations and a stream of offshore marine engineering and shipbuilding contracts.
In a statement, Cosco said net profit for the three months ended June 30 was at S$80.4 million, up from S$51 million last year.
Revenue rose 93% to S$512.3 million from S$265.3 million previously.
"Our group is confident that growth momentum will continue, buoyed by booming demand and robust shipyard performance, and supported by ongoing capacity and capability enhancement," Cosco President Ji Hai Sheng said in the statement.
Earlier this month, the company said it got US$563 million worth of shipbuilding and conversion contracts.
This brings the company's total order book to US$3.3 billion as of July 31.
-By Vladimir Guevarra, Dow Jones Newswires; +65 6415 4155; vladimir.guevarra@dowjones.com
-Edited by Costas Paris
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 31, 2007 05:32 ET (09:32 GMT)
4. Straits Asia Update:
Straits Asia has hit an intra-day low of $0.995 in the afternoon after hitting an intra-day high of $1.39. This is meaning due to the news below. This has posed an excellent trading opportunity for those who have the gut:
DJ MARKET TALK: Straits Asia Drops Sharply; Indonesia Output Hit
0703 GMT [Dow Jones] Straits Asia Resources (AJ1.SG) drops as much as 20% to 3-month low of S$1.07 before retracing to S$1.15 (14.2% decline) on heavy volume as investors spooked by disruption to firm's Sebuku coal operation in South Kalimantan due to extended wet season. Company says "Force Majeure" beginning July 30 will affect its obligations to deliver coal to customers. Analyst at foreign bank says while company unlikely to meet this year's coal output of 3.7 million tons, it may still benefit from disruption; "the lower output will certainly result in lower earnings for this year. But it also means less supply for the region, which translates to higher coal prices in the medium term. So, it's good for its 2008 contract prices because it's in negotiations right now with customers." Support at S$1 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement between 52-week high of S$1.68, low of S$0.585). (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 31, 2007 03:03 ET (07:03 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
STOCK WATCH
CHINA HONGXIN ( Last Traded $0.795 )
This counter has been trending down since 7/18 from a historic high of $1.08. Current support at 100DMA. No TA buy signal yet but good to watch as this is a resilent counter, will make a come back when it has bottomed.
HONGWEI ( Last Traded $0.395 )
Same as above. No buy signal yet but looking for the downtrend to be bottomed. Result will be released on Aug 14.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/30
STI : 3.526.29 (+33.59)
1. STI opened weak but closed higher. It has rebounded without me ! I guess I may have been too greedy and have set urelistic buying target. However, as I am looking for a bargain. If the prices did not reach the level I have expected, they are not a bargain. Afterall, the current prices are really not cheap. Although STI has shown sign of decoupling with Dow, the upcoming movement is still wobbly. I always believe, the market will still be there after I died. No hurry !
2. So no bargain hunt but as a consolation, have gotten x lots of China HongCheng by mean of placement ( courtesy of my broker ). IPO date: August 8 ( 8/8 ) !!
STOCK WATCH
CHINA HONGXIN ( Last Traded $0.815 )
This counter has been trending down since 7/18 from a historic high of $1.08. Current support at 100DMA. No TA buy signal yet but good to watch as this is a resilent counter, will make a come back when it has bottomed.
09:15 update: Looks like the market is well supported after the less than 30 points dip at the opening. Maybe many investors have done the same home work over the weekend and are pushing their trolley around for bargain hunt given support to the market. May not get anything as plan afterall !
09:30 update: Nikki down 145 points. Waiting to see HSI....
CIMB is very bearish about STI Index. Read on....
Straits Times Index - Runaway gap?
At a glance
Last Close 3,492.70 YTD (%) +17.0 Market cap (S$ bn) 476.8 52-wk range (RM) 2,400 -3,688 2007 P/E (x)* 14.4 *Bloomberg consensus
Holding just above its sideways trend support Sell signals from both MACD and RSI Source: CIMB-GK Research, Bloomberg
Immediate outlook: The Straits Times Index (STI) plunged 4.3% or 159pts from the week before. This sharp fall has produced a downward gap on its daily chart. This could be a runway gal and this is definitely not a good sign. Coupled with the negative vibes from its indicators, we believe this is the beginning of a new medium term downtrend. For the past couple of months, we have always reminded investors to take profits on rallies as we do not expect the index to breach the 3,700-3,750 LT channel resistance. The index is currently holding just above its sideways trend support of 3,480 but we expect the support to give way soon. A downward break could the index lower towards the 3,330 support in the next few weeks.
Medium-term outlook (2-6 months): Last week’s long black candle (reversal from its LT channel resistance) suggests that uptrend is likely over. The long-term uptrend channel for the index is still intact but the buying momentum behind the medium term bull is easing. Indicators have also confirmed that a new medium term downtrend is already on its way. It may be wise to continue to unwind some of the shareholdings on rallies as we still do not foresee a breakout happening now. For now, the index has a strong support at the 3,220-3,300 level. This consolidation is expected to last 2-6 months.
DJ MARKET TALK: STI Off 0.5%; 3450 Support; REITs Buck Fall
0130 GMT [Dow Jones] STI off 0.5% at 3474.82 with most component stocks lower, tracking weakness on other Asian bourses on global credit risk fears. But STI's decline subdued vs Friday's fall, suggesting market may be nearing bottom with possible recovery in near term. Immediate support tipped at 3450 (May 3 close). "I expect a bit of rebound soon, but there wouldn't be any particular sector to buy into as the market is still weak. Although Singapore banks still have good results, I think things will be pretty docile for now," says dealer at local bank. Overall market volume thin. REITs like Ascendas (A17U.SG), CapitaCommercial Trust (C61U.SG) bucking decline among component stocks as investors focus on defensive plays. (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 29, 2007 21:30 ET (01:30 GMT)
DJ MARKET TALK: STI May Fall; 3400-3430 Support Tipped
0015 GMT [Dow Jones] STI may remain weak on fears of global credit squeeze, which again pressured Wall Street Friday, but some market watchers expect local bourse to rebound in near term. Support tipped at 3400-3430 band. "Singapore tends to do reasonably well during regional bear markets and we believe this has not changed, particularly in view of the strong macroeconomic environment," says Credit Suisse. Stronger-than-expected earnings, buoyant business outlook so far from heavyweights like Keppel Corp. (BN4.SG), Keppel Land (K17.SG), SGX (S68.SG) may offer support to their share prices, which would help cap STI's downside. STI down 2.4% at 3492.70 Friday. (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 29, 2007 20:15 ET (00:15 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/29
The market is close today.
DOW MOVEMENT
Dow has broken the 50 days MA and is currently supported by 100 days MA which is Fibo 38.2%. Next two major supports are Fibo 50% ( 12,980 ) and Fibo 61.8% ( 12,740 ) which is also 200days MA. WM%R has reached oversold thresold. This seems to be tallied with the previous two major dips ( Oval ). My bet is that Monday Dow should rebound
STOCK WATCH (Broker Call)
SemCorp ( closed at $5.8 ) - Good buy at $5.25 (Fibo 50%), $4.98 (Fibo 61.8%), Okay level : $5.45 (Fibo 38.2%). Note: Trendline broken on Friday. WM%R has not reached oversold thresold yet.
SemMar ( closed at $5.7 ) - Good buy at $5.15 (Fibo 38.2%), Okay level: $5.5 (Fibo 23.6%). Trendline broken on Friday. WM%R has not reached oversold thresold yet.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/28
The market is closed today.
Dow tumbled another 208.10 points on Friday 7/28 to close at 13,265.47. All in all, Dow loss 725 points since July 20 after it has hit an intra-day high of 14,000. This may cause STI to continue its decline on Monday. As in the melt down in March, it could be a good time to bargain hunt. Most of the good stocks will recover quickly after the heavy sell off.
Stock Watch
ST Engineering (Defensive Bluechip. Level to watch: $3.56, $3.45)
ST Engineering ( closed at $3.68 ), being an index linked bluechip, loss only $0.08 during Friday's sell down. It is currently supported at 50 days MA. Next major supports are $3.56 ( 100 days MA & Fibo 50% ) and $3.45 ( Fibo 61/8% ). Despite the recent corretion, this counter is well above the trendline and supported by 50 days MA. WM%R suggested a good bargain should the price drop any further than Friday's close.
Apart from TA, there were brokerage firm coverage lately:
DJ MARKET TALK: Kim Eng Ups ST Engineering To Buy, S$4.65 Target
0414 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Kim Eng Securities ups ST Engineering (S63.SG) to Buy from Hold, lifts target to S$4.65 from S$3.57. Says defence group about to enter next phase of growth despite already impressive track record; "STE's overall orderbook is confirming this expected new growth phase of earnings." Raises FY07 net profit forecast by 9% to S$523.3 million. Company has just landed S$168 million contract to build passenger ferry for Louis Dreyfus of France. Kim Eng says steady earnings will allow group to continue paying 100% of its earnings as dividends. Stock +1.6% at S$3.68. (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 13, 2007 00:14 ET (04:14 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
My View: As guided by WM%R, $3.68 is not far from "good buy" (oversold threshold). Anywhere below $3.68 ( especially if it is near the two supports of $3.56 and $3.45 ) are good bargain. This counter is safe to keep even if STI suffers from sustain bearish condition. May queue fat $3.56 ( 6 bids ) on Sunday night. Ideal for CPF.
Cosco $5.15 ( level to watch $4.96, $4.7, $4.45 ) 
Cosco loss $0.20 on Friday and closed at $5.15. It is currently supported at 14DMA ($4.98) which is also a Fibo support level of 38.2%. If STI takes a dive again on Monday, the next support for Cosco shall be 25DMA (around $4.7) which is tallied with Fibo 50% support level. It is quite unlikely but in the event it will, the next support is Fibo 61.8% or $4.45.Below is how Cocos response to the STI March fall:
My View: Friday closing at $5.15 did not reach WM%R oversold threshold. A good bargain should be anywhere between $4.7 - $4.96. May queue at $4.94 ( 6 bids away ) on Sunday night. Ideal for CPF.
Aztech $0.665 ( Level to watch: $0.645, $0.62 )Aztech is one of the best performing electronic tech stock. It has trippled its value since Jan 07. It is now supported at 25 days MA. The intra-day low & closing price on Friday are still above the trendline. WM%R hasn't reached oversold thresold yet but not far from it. A good price to enter will be $0.60 - $0.62 ( Fibo 61.8% ). Ideal for cash.
Wheelock (Trending Down - Level to watch : $3.1, $2.98, $2.87 )
The recent correction has caused Wheelock to turn into down trend. This can be seen from the classical analysis above whereby the recent prices have achieved lower high and lower low. Friday's closing of $3.24 has broken the 100 days MA. The next supports are $3.1 and $2.98. While a technical rebound is possible to send the prices higher, it is important to observe if the prices go back up to $3.44. If it doesn't, Wheelock is heading for a down trend from here on.
MY VIEW: Although It is likely for Wheelock to see technical rebound and it is probably safe to take position at around the support ( $3.1 or $2.98 ). The trendline has broken and based on classical analysis, there is fear where the upward trend has changed unless the rebound hits higher than $3.44. It might be safer to bang on ST Engineering and Cosco versus Wheelock. I do not fully agree with the technical analysis from The Edge below. It has, nevertheless, added more concerns and uncertainly to the future of this counter.
Technical Analysis From THE EDGE ( July 30, 2007 Issue )
Wheelock ($3.24) has just broken below $3.24, a support level that coincides with the 50 and 100 days moving average. The major support level is at $3.20, a neck-line. A breka below $3.20 would complete a major top formation and indicate a target of $2. Sound drastic. But take a look at quarterly momentum. It's on a declining trend and appears poised to break below its equilibrium line - such a move could well signal an altogether more bearish phrase.
Apart from TA, Morgon Stanley has started Wheelock on "SELL":
DJ MARKET TALK: MS Starts Wheelock Properties At Underweight
0142 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley starts Wheelock Properties (M35.SG) at Underweight with S$3.01 target (pegged to forecast FY07 NAV). Says current valuations expensive despite developer's good track record, "perfect timing" of its land acquisitions at bottom of property cycle; still, MS says it's concerned company running low on landbank. Stock +1.8% at S$3.38. (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires July 18, 2007 21:42 ET (01:42 GMT) Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Labels: Stock Pick, Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/27
STI : 3,492.70 ( -87.03 )1. Most Asian markets tumbled Friday in the wake of one of Wall Street's biggest drops of the year (-331.50), although European markets rebounded modestly from sharp losses the previous day. Investors in Asia were rattled after U.S. and European markets plunged Thursday amid worries over the U.S. mortgage and corporate lending markets.
Commentary:
As reiterated throughout the week, weaknesses in STI has been spotted. The plunge today is not unexpected regardless of what triggered the tumble. The heavy selling today has caused STI to fall below the 50 days moving average. It is now supported by the 100 days moving average. The next major support shall be 3,400 ( Fibo 38.2% ) and 3,310 ( Fibo 50% ).It is still too early to conclude if the correction is over or will there be more plunge next week. A quick look at the March melt down ( chart below ) shown that while there was a slight rebound on March 1 after the gap down on Feb 28. There were subsequent sessions of bear raids until STI regain the momentum to achieve higher high and resume its uptrend. So even if next Monday sees a rebound, investors ought to exercise caution.
More to come on stock pick for next week bargain hunt !
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/26
STI : 3.579.53 ( -53.81 )1. Market is very gloomy today. Property & banking counters take the lead for the decline.Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/25
STI : 3,633.54 ( -31.59 )
1. STI slipped from the record high. Down plunged 226.47 overnight.
DJ MARKET TALK: STI May Slip On US Losses; Heavy Valuations
0015 GMT [Dow Jones] STI may slip after heavy losses in U.S. overnight, concerns that stock valuations in Singapore have already priced in upside from strong quarterly earnings; initial support at 10 day moving average of 3632, subsequent support at 30 day moving average of 3596. Still trader says "any weakness from the U.S. is likely to trigger profit taking right now, although the index probably still has a a bit more upside left in it." DJIA fell 1.7% as negative earnings reports, continued concerns over subprime mortgages. STI closed up 0.8% at 3665.13 yesterday. (JEM)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2007 20:15 ET (00:15 GMT)
Credit Suisse
. CS Risk Appetite (RA) is currently at 4.5, very close to the Euphoria level at 5.0. Historically, RA at or above Euphoria level is always associated with a market correction. Beside the Asian crisis and TMT bubble times, corrections ranged from 8% to 20% and did not last long (3-13 weeks). 3 out of the previous 4 corrections were mild (<10%) and short. It is hard to say how severe the next correction will be; however, RA at euphoria level is often a good indicator for an exit. . On the other hand, while the market and RA are yet to reach their highs, other risk measures look worrying: 1) VIX at 16.8 is above its 20-day moving average and previous market peaks. High in VIX normally implies a high volatility (uncertainty) is expected in the next 30 days. 2) EMBI spread at 180 bp has risen 30 bp from its June 5th low, and at 1 standard deviation above its average 20-day change. Higher EMBI spread often reflects a higher caution among investors. . Asia markets are at all-time highs despite US subprime and slowing economy concerns, China.s tightening measures, and high crude oil prices. We remain cautious on the equity market and are prepared for an exit when RA re-enters the euphoria zone.
Trading Play:
Stratech $0.105
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/24
STI : 3,665.13 ( +29.78 )Another record high closing for STI.Technical Picks:Serial : $0.27
Hosen : $0.33
AP Oil : $0.39
Straits Asia : $1.52
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/23
STI : 3.635.35 ( -16.03 )
DJ MARKET TALK: STI Off 0.9%; M/T Buying Momentum Slipping - CIMB
0130 GMT [Dow Jones] STI off 0.9% at 3616.94; "the long-term uptrend channel is intact but the buying momentum behind the medium term bull is slowly easing," according to CIMB. Says it may be wise to start unwinding some of shareholdings on rallies; says index could rise to test 3700-3740 level short term with investors focusing attention on corporate earnings from M1 (M31.SG),
(END) Dow Jones Newswires July 22, 2007 21:30 ET (01:30 GMT)
Technical Pick
From today, I shall post selected counters scanned by SI Station and try to observe the accuracy.
1. Straits Asia ($1.54)
-- Parabolic SAR buy call. RSI rising, three white candlestick with rising window. MACD crossover should take place soon.
2. AP Oil ($0.405)
- MACD buy signal, RSI rising. Parabolic SAR buy signal should happen soon.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/21
The market is closed today. Dow dipped 149 points last night. The dips in Dow alone does not worry me so much as 149 points is not too alarming especially when you have factored in the recent gain of 283 points in a single session on 13/7 & several sessions of 40 - 60 points gain thereafter. But China raised interest rate yesterday for the 5th times in 15 months may cause SSE & HSI to drop and could spark off another round of heavy selling in Asia bourse.SIT by itself has shown lots of weakness lately. Some divergence between the weekly price movement and the TA indicators are in the making:
The mini correction of 67 points on Wednesday is not what I am expecting for. In order for STI to continue the bull journey, a larger correction much like the one in early March is probably inevitable.Labels: Stock Pick, Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/20
STI : 3,651.78 ( +46.76 )
1. STI continued the rebound yesterday and closed with a gain of 46.76. This was boosted by Dow breaking the 14,000 marks last night. However, it is not uncommon for DJIA to pull back immediately after it breaches new landmark. This was the case when Dow reaches 11,000 &12,000, As of the time this blog was writen, Dow is downed by 107 points and back to 13,8xx. Reason cited was disappointing earning from Caterpillar Inc and Google.
2. Both BH Global & Hosen in my watchlist move up strongly in morning trade. BH Global especially closed up by 4.5 cents.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/19
STI : 3,604.62 ( +20.65 )1. STI rebounded today. It looks like the mini correction yesterday was a knee jerk reaction to the surprise annoucement of the DC rate hiked by the MND. The recovery this morning was very cautious and weak but by afternoon it has become much firmer. In fact, most analysts felt the sharp plunge of the property counters yesterday was over reaction too. The DC hike should not affect them so badly. I was queuing for UOL at 5.4 but did not get it ( almost ).
2. Longcheer Update:
The small ascending triangle spotted previously have to be negated since the closing price yesterday has broken the support line due to the mini correction. A larger ascending triangle could be in the making though. However, it is too preliminary to confirm since it is less than 1/3 from the Apex. The Apex stretches up to Sept 15 or so. In order for this ascending triangle to be established, Longcheer should trade within the support & resistance as shown in the chart. In other word, it might not break the .81 resistance until breakout. Again, this is way too early to assume. And most important, prices do not need to heed my prediction but I am attempting to trail how the prices are trying to move. If their movement falls within my triangle, then the triangle is valid. If not, forget about the triangle. They can move anyway they like. In the near term, Longcheer has entered the bear phrase.
3. Trading Play Tomorrow: BH Global, Hosen
Labels: Stock Pick, Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/18
STI : 3,583.97 ( -67.08 )
1. As predicted since the past two days (see below), STI is due for a correction. Despite Dow was up 20.57 points overnight and hitting the record 14,000 mark, STI opened weak. At around 3:50pm, market started a massive sell off. It was quite scary from my SI Station screen. It was almost like panic selling where investors exit on stampede. Judging at the index itself, lossing 67 points is not a big deal. However, Nikki was downed 201.69 point and Hang Seng was downed 215.38 points as well. This may trigger Dow to drop and resulted to a melt down like March.
2. Fortunately, offloaded more than 50% of holding on last Friday. Exited Global Voice this morning with about $500 of profit before the bear hit.
3. The news about Government's decision to increase the development charge to 70% caused property, banking counters and index to dip.
...................................................................................................................
0749 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore hikes development charge on appreciation of redeveloped property to 70% from 50%, in move to cool sizzling property market that may be overheating. Hike will impact firms that purchase private property - often condominiums through collective sale - then redevelop into more valuable projects. Government levies tax on difference between appreciated value of original property and that of new project. Former Prime Minister Lee Kwan Yew earlier in July warned that Singapore's property market rise threatens to make economy less competitive internationally. Second-quarter private property prices rose 7.9% from first quarter, poising market to top last year's 10.2% rise. (JRJ)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 18, 2007 03:49 ET (07:49 GMT)
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4. All recent technical analysis done will need to be re-assessed after the correction. It is inevitable that most of the flag formation will be affected.
5. Looking forward for the TA seminar tomorrow evening on " Strategies Using Chart Formations "
6. Let's hope we all survive the bear raid !!
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/17
STI : 3,651.05 ( -2.18 )
1. Two days in a row, STI opened high and closed low - A sign of weakness and being cautious of its direction. This is despite Dow closed 45 points higher on Friday and 43 points higher last night. Ben Bernake is expected to deliver key note address tonight on US interest rate movement.
DJ Singapore Shares End Flat; Late-July Correction Possible
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index closed flat after moving sideways most of Tuesday and analysts warned of a possible late-month pullback to mirror the ones in April and May. The STI closed down just 2.2 points, or 0.1%, at 3651.1.
In the broader market, losers beat gainers 436 to 420. Volume was 6.4 billion shares, up from 4.6 billion shares traded Monday. "The STI is trying to consolidate within a higher trading range of 3650 to 3670," Fraser Securities analyst Najeeb Jarhom told Dow Jones Newswires. Jarhom said that a correction may be coming later in July. "What's catching me by surprise is the absence of a 3%-5% pullback this month, like there was in April and May... There's a good chance of a pullback in the second half of July to under the 3600 level."
Others also saw the possibility of a correction, but said it was a precursor for further gains. "I still think the market is due for a breather," said a dealer at foreign brokerage. "A pullback is necessary before the market can go higher."
-By Andrew Cedotal, Dow Jones Newswires; +65 6415 4154; andrew.cedotal@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 17, 2007 06:56 ET (10:56 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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DJ MARKET TALK: STI +0.7%; Possible Sharp Correction Ahead- OCBC
0127 GMT [Dow Jones] STI +0.7% at 3681.06 with most component stocks higher, but just off another new record high of 3688.58 set in opening minutes. Psychological resistance at 3700. While index's strong run so far impressive, OCBC Investment Research says STI at risk of sharp correction as market heads into corporate earnings season. Notes STI has shown fair bit of volatility over last 3 months, quantitative factors suggest possible correction ahead; "the STI has never rallied for more than 2.5 years without a significant correction, and it has been 3 years and 4 months since a significant correction." Tips support at 3350, resistance at 3870. Credit Suisse, however, thinks otherwise; says valuations still not excessive as current P/E in line with 10-year average of 18.9X. Overall market volume moderate. (FKH)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 15, 2007 21:27 ET (01:27 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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2. Added 15 lots of Longcheer at $.79 ( total holding 27 lots ). Despite hitting a low of .775 before closing at .795, the ascending triangle is still intact. However, there is sign of weaknesses in short term movement.
3. ST Engineering edged up 12 cents today. Sigh, should have entered based on my judgement few days ago.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/16
STI : 3,653.23 ( -1.38 )1. STI is due for some degree of correction.2, Stock Watch: Longcheer
(Longcheer Daily Chart)
(Longcheer Weekly Chart )
From the daily chart:
Ascending triangle formed - An ascending triangle appears to be taking shape since June 15. If this obversation comes true, a breakout will ocurr with the following target price:
($0.82 - $0.64 ) + $0.82 = $ 1.00
However, please note that the formation has taken only about one month which is not very long. The breakout may not be as powerful as the TA calculation.
From the weekly chart:
Parabolic SAR uppder band is about to hit the weekly price. The last time it hits the weekly price was Nov '06 which had sparked off the rally. MACD line is above signal line, a sign of bullishness. MACD Histrogram has been in green and crossed into positive zone. RSI & Stochastic are both trending up.
Entry: $0.785 - $0.795 ( anything lower than .78 should not enter as it breaks the triangle. )
Exit : Let the profit run as long as trendline is intact.
Price level to watch: $0.88 (Fibo 38.2%), $0.98 (Fibo 50%), $1.07 (Fibo 61.8%)
Additional Informations:
1. On June 28, Zaoboa page 26 has a column featuring Longcheer. It analysed Longcheer from the Eillot Wave's perspective. It states on 2005 Oct 21, Longcheer has tested a low of .27. After that it went into wave A on 2006 May 18 and closed at 1.27. June 8 finished wave B at .667. Wave C closed at 1.37 on 2006 Dec 7. From there, it went into 5 wave of decline and on March 5 closed at .585. Longcheer will rebound in the immediate near future and will fill the gap of 1.09 - 1.18. If this is successful, it will retest $1.24 and mark histroic high.
2. CIMB Buy Call:DJ MARKET TALK: Longcheer +3.0%; Buy For Earnings Recovery - CIMB0154 GMT [Dow Jones] Longcheer (L28.SG) +3.0% at S$0.685 on heavy volume despite posting 54% on year fall in 3Q07 net profit CNY32.4 million due to lower revenues from component trading. CIMB suggests buying stock for earnings recovery; trims target price to S$1.55 from S$1.64, but says shares represent excellent value, trading at just 4.1x CY08 earnings. Longcheer plans launches of dual-SIM cards, gaming phones in coming months, CIMB expects third of sales to be generated by new products by end 2007. Upside capped at 30 day moving average of S$0.71 after stock slipped to month low of S$0.655 yesterday. (JEM)May 09, 2007 21:54 ET (01:54 GMT) Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
3. JF Asset Management ( fund manager ) has been accumulating their holding ( 7.56% latest ).
4. Longcheer has a very low P/E of 6.9 ( very impressive indeed )
Labels: Stock Pick, Trading Digest
7/15 - Global Voice Update
Some updates on this counter:
1. The symmetrical triangle ( line 1 & 2 ) spotted before did breakout ( point A ).
2. Since the triangle was formed with relatively short period of time, the break out was not very powerful and only sent the price up to .225 and retraced very quickly.
3. However, a larger triangle is taking shape right now. This time, it looks more like an ascending triangle ( line 1 & 3 ). Based on the projection, I think the breakout should be a in Aug.
4. Since this 2nd triangle has taken much longer to form, I believe the breakout should be more powerful.
5. In additional to the triangles, there is a cup and handle formation taking place. The formation started more than 1 year ago.
Labels: Stock Pick
Trading Digest 7/13
STI : 3,654.61 ( +30.05 )
1. Dow gained 283.86 points overnight boosted by better than expected retail sales data. This is also the largest single day gain since October 2003.
2. Offloaded all holdings of SPH & Wheelock with a decent gain. Cummulative realized gain has crossed five digit's mark since Janary 2007.
3. Stock Watch (Trading Play):
BH Global. Last traded at .715 but closed with a gravestone doji, a sign of bullish reversal. Will consider to pick up some on Monday on retracement.
FerroChina - Talk of the town, DBSV target $3.46 on July 9. Last traded $2.76.
AdvHdg. Last traded at .605. Appears to be a breakout supported by high volume.
4. Subscirbed to SI Station membership today.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/12
STI : 3,624.56 ( +29.62 )Stock Watch:
UIC ( last traded : $3.54 ) - Vested
Compared to many other property counters like SC Global, Keppel Land, Capital Land, Wing Tai, BukitSem ...etc. UIC is relatively a laggard. This counter has been very resilient and survived well (or recover fast) with all corrections so far. It has hardly weakened to allow buyers a chance to enter cheap. It has been trending up steadily since Sept 06 and the trendline is still intact. The way UIC edged up is unlike many other counters that will suddenly skyrocketed. Instead, it edges up 2 cents a day consistently trending along the upper band of Bollinger Band. Slow and steady !
Ascending Triangle Formed - Since June 20, an ascending triangle is taking shape. With the flag pole being June 20 - 26, the target is calculated as ($3.58 - $3.22 ) + $3.58 (breakout point) = $3.94. Please note though that target price derived from flag pole can only be taken as a rough guide. Given that the ascending triangle was formed with relatively short period of time, the breakout may not be as strong as the projection. However, this is still a good guide at least we know where it is heading to.
Something beyond TA. The 2nd largest shareholder and director Mr John Gokongwei has been accummulating his holding from the open market. His latest holding is 32.81% as of July 11 after acquiring 1,710 lots that day. IMHO, this counter is rather safe to move in with visiable upside.
Entry : $3.52 - $3.56
Exit : Let the profit run as long as the trendline is intact. Very safe stock to hold on. For quick profit, $3.85 !
UOL (last traded: $5.75) - Not vested, but will.
Symmetrical Triangle Formed: Since June 14 till now, UOL has been traded in a manner where a symmetrical triangle formation is taking place. Flat pole : June 14 - 18. Assuming if breakout at $5.8, target is $6.35. Again, target calculation using flag pole is only a rough guide.
Major brokerage firms coverage:
June 25 - CIMB raised target from $6 to $7.14
June 21 - ABN AMRO initial coverage $7.65
Entry : $ 5.6 - $5.7
Exit : Let the profit run or $6.20 - $6.30
Labels: Stock Pick, Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/11
STI : 3,594.94 ( -25.38 )1. Dow dropped 148.27 overnight weakened sentiment of regional bourse.2. SPH result is out. A disappointing 8.5% down in profit compared to last year. DJ UPDATE: Singapore Press Holdings 3Q Net Dn 8.5% To S$159.8M (Adds details.)
July 11, 2007 06:59 ET (10:59 GMT)
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. (T39.SG), the city-state's dominant publisher, said Wednesday its fiscal third-quarter net profit fell 8.5% from a year earlier, when it booked an exceptional gain of S$69.1 million.
In a statement, SPH said net profit for the quarter ended May 31 was S$159.8 million, down from S$174.6 million a year earlier.
Its revenue for the quarter was S$288.1 million, up 8.4% from S$265.7 million last year.
In a statement, chief executive Alan Chan said the company is expected to post better earnings than last year.
"Print advertising looks promising, as the economy is doing well. Paragon (SPH's shopping mall) is generating healthy rental yields amid strong sentiments in the property market," Chan said.
SPH said revenue from its core newspaper and magazine business rose 7.8% to S$255.7 million due to an increase in print advertising revenue.
Its non-core property business saw a 6.6% rise in revenue to S$26 million due to "continued positive sentiments in the property market," the company said.
Its total operating expenses rose 5% to S$182.2 million, due largely to staff costs, including bonuses, salary increases and increased headcount.
The company now has 3,684 staff, compared with 3,583 a year ago.
It booked an investment income of S$75.3 million, largely from the sale of some investments and profit from a capital reduction exercise by MobileOne Ltd, in which it has a stake.
SPH publishes 14 newspapers and more than 90 magazines in Singapore and the region.
It also owns and manages a shopping mall in the prime Orchard Road shopping belt and is developing a 43-storey residential condominium.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/10
STI : 3,620.32 ( - 6.4 )
Pacific Healthcare
When I first gotten the buy call, the chart did not look good. However, it has now changed and look bullish. MACD line crossed up signal line. However, 14 days MA is yet to catch up on the 25 days MA. Positive divergence from stochastic and RSI have been spotted. More upside expected. For those who are pondering for entry, .425 should still be okay although the risk/reward ratio will not be as ideal as when entered at .405. Target : 0.5 - 0.56. Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/9
STI : 3,626.72 ( +64.76 )
1. STI closed higher lead by rally of banking counters. DBS, for example, gained 70 cents on expectation of good trade data to be released tomorrow.
2. DJ MARKET TALK: STI +0.9%; UBS Tip 3730 For Year End
0121 GMT [Dow Jones] STI gains in line with regional indices as foreign brokerages reiterate positive longer term guidance for index; up 0.9% at 3592.42, 3600 ceiling. UBS forecast remains at 3730 for end-2007 and 4300 for end-2008; expects limited upside in the near term, but remains bullish on a 12-month view. Credit Suisse says "investors should stay the course and use market dips as opportunities to pick up stocks with good earnings visibility, strong growth prospects and reasonable valuations." Volumes extremely subdued, with most blue chips edging up on hopes of strong earnings; gainers lead losers 367 to 70 on broader market. (JEM)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires July 08, 2007 21:21 ET (01:21 GMT)
3. Pacific HC edged up & tested .43. Wheelock hits an intra-day high of 3.54 and closed at 3.5.
MACD 4 red 1 green setup appeared. WM%R crossed zero line. There is chance where it will close higher tomorrow.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/6
STI : 3,561.96 ( +10.28 )STI & regional bourse did not react to the 200pts fall in SSE yesterday. In fact, SSE rebounded today.Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/5
STI : 3,551.68 ( - 3.17 )1. STI was up most of the time today until late afternoon where SSE was downed by 200 points before it dipped into negative range. STI may drop furiously tomorrow.2. Added 25 lots of PacificHC on broker call.3. Most holdings have turned into bearish zone. Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/4
STI : 3,554.85 ( -14.58 )1. US market will be closed tonight.2. Get into a free trial of SI Station V5, very impress with it and may subscribe after expiry.Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/3
STI : 3,569.43 ( +19.09 )1. Offloaded 5 lots of UIC at 3.54 with pretty decent profit. Keeping another 3 lots for further upside.2. SPH plunged 18 cents during intra-day and closed short of 12 cents at 4.52. Very disappointing counter.Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 7/2
STI : 3,550.34 ( +2.14 )1. On MC today, no change in current position.2. Global Voice: Pretty weak showing today ( closed at .21 ). Probably due to contra players exiting their position after last Thursday's high volume of 81 millions.
3. URA News Release: 2 July 2007
URA Releases Flash 2nd Quarter 2007 Private Residential Property Price Index
The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released today the flash estimate of the price index of private residential property for 2nd Quarter 2007.
Based on the estimated price index of private residential property, prices rose from 136.5 points in the 1st Quarter 2007 to 147.3 points in the 2nd Quarter 2007. This represents an increase of 7.9%, compared with the 4.8% increase in the previous quarter (see Annex A).
URA also released today the flash estimates of the price changes in the 3 geographical regions for 2nd Quarter 2007. Prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 7.6% in Core Central Region, 7.9% in Rest of Central Region and 6.5% in Outside Central Region in the quarter (see Annex B).
The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of the quarter supplemented by information on the number of new units sold. The statistics will be updated 4 weeks later when URA releases the full 2nd Quarter 2007 real estate statistics, when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects are captured. Past data have shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual price changes could be significant when the change is small. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution.
The increase in private housing prices in recent quarters is in line with greater economic growth and rising confidence. Private housing prices are now increasing at a faster pace because of good economic prospects going forward and the increasing attractiveness of Singapore as a global city.
The Government will continue to monitor the market very closely. The Government will ensure that there will be sufficient supply of residential space to meet demand. The GLS Programme for the 2nd half of 2007, which was just announced recently, comprises 20 residential sites and 5 other commercial & residential and white sites which have a potential supply of about 8,000 units of private housing and executive condominium (EC) housing. The Government has also re-introduced an Executive Condominium site to give an additional housing option to Singaporeans. If necessary, the Government will make available even more sites for private residential development through the GLS Programme next year.
In addition to new GLS sites for development, there are about 42,200 new units of private housing that will be completed from 2H2007 to 2010. About 22,700 of these units have not been sold by developers yet. Prospective home-buyers should take into consideration the sufficient pipeline supply of private housing, as well as the potential supply from GLS sites, when deciding to make a property purchase.Labels: Trading Digest
