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Trading Digest 5/30
STI : 3,511.13 ( - 15.95 )
1. China raised the stamp duty of security from .1% to .3% sparked off heavy sell off in Shanghai and Shezheng. STI was down 57.99 during the intra-day but rebounded to -15.95 before closing. Apparently, the sell off is confined to China & Hong Kong and did not affect other Asia Pacific. As of the time this blog was writen, Dow is in the green ( +22 ).
2. UIC closed 3.14, Wheelock closed 3.28. ST Eng & SPH continued to be the two most disappointed bluechip in my portfolio.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 5/29
STI : 3527.08 ( + 13.71 )1. Oops, SPH did heed the moring doji star yesterday. The EOD of ChartNexus came late so was unable to confirm this.2. Collected 5 lots of UIC at 3.12 CPF based on Parabolic buy signalLabels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest
STI : 3,513.37 ( +26.47 )1. STI rebounded after 2 days of decline. US is closed for holiday tonight and Wednesday is public holiday in Singapore.
2. Ace Achieve finally rally, don't know what to say.
3. Most of my counters are drifting down. SPH and ST Eng did not heed the candlestick formation.
Labels: Trading Digest
25 Stocks that could rise 20%
As reported in ST on Jan 21, 2007. Let's see, Gems TV is definitely out.
25 stocks that could rise 25%
Some could even surge by as much as 100%, but before you snap up any, remember, brokers aren't always right
By Leong Chan Teik
MANY people think the stock market now is best left to investors who don't know danger even when it's staring them in the face.
After all, the Straits Times Index, a benchmark of the market, has soared to record highs, and risks falling sharply.
But anyone leafing through the reams of reports that stockbrokers put out every day will stumble on the occasional bargain stock.
At least that's how it looks to the analyst who wrote the report.
For what it's worth, The Sunday Times has compiled a list of 25 stocks which stockbrokers recently said could be worth at least 25 per cent more within a year - even if they did go up massively last year.
The analyst reports can be found at such websites as http://research.sgx.com/ and http://www.remisiers.org as well as http://www.siasresearch.com
There are also several stockbroker websites that investors can check out.
Some of the stocks are said to have eye-popping potential to surge.
Take for example, Aztech Systems. DBS Vickers Securities said last Tuesday that the stock could jump 100 per cent.
Its price, then at 28 cents, could reach 56 cents within a year, according to the stockbroker, who previously had a target price of 35 cents.
Now, a more bullish DBS Vickers has raised its recommendation for the stock from a 'buy' to a 'strong buy'.
It explained that last year should have been an exceptional year for Aztech as it rolled out new technology products.
Aztech is expected to report a 56 per cent profit jump to $15.9 million, and go on to register 'another breakthrough' this year with profits rising 40 per cent, said DBS Vickers.
Not all the 25 stocks made it to the list because their businesses are going great guns.
It could also be that the stock has been overly sold down following some bad news.
For example, Citigroup Equity Research last Wednesday said of Noble Group, Asia's largest commodities trader: 'A lot of the recent bad news is in the price.'
The stock could rise 47 per cent to $1.53, compared with the recent price of $1.04, said Citigroup.
It gave an analysis of how Noble's business is set to recover. Of course, in all business forecasts, there is a degree of uncertainty.
Depending on how profits turn out, the prices of stocks could fall short of stockbrokers' expectations, or exceed them.
Stockbrokers sometimes have a track record of being wrong, as the article in the Two Cents' Worth column on this page illustrates.
Investor sentiment is another wild card when it comes to stock prices.
In a bull market like the one we are in the midst of, investors are willing to pay a lot more for stocks than when gloom and doom prevails.
So, what good is the list of 25 stocks? It is a starting place for you to do your own research.
Locate the full broker report and read about the assumptions made and the insights which the analysts have to offer.
Caveat emptor, as always.
THE 25 COUNTERS ARE
21/1/07 25/5/07
Aztech .33 .475 +
HTL .91 .84 -
Techcomp .265 .41 +
Plastoform .245 .18 -
Cityneon .26 .60 +
China Kangda .46 .375 -
See Hup Seng .435 .82 +
KS Energy 2.49 3.08 +
China Enersave 1.21 1.71 +
Swissco .545 .875 +
Noble Group 1.04 1.48 +
Advance SCT .715 .735 +
Utac .755 .935 +
Gems TV 1.33 .825 +
CSE Global .86 1.3 +
Man Wah .455 .44 -
Ellipsiz .765 .965 +
Luzhou Bio-Chem .79 .65 -
Best World .745 1.09 +
Jadason .265 .215 -
Technics Oil & Gas .84 .86 +
YHI .39 .415 +
Pacific Andes .85 1.19 +
Santak .24 .245 +
Asia Pharm .80 .735 -
Trading Digest 5/25
STI : 3,486.63 ( -43.63 )1. STI has declined for the 2nd day in a row. Again, I view this as healthy and welcomed. Monday will probably be a weak start but may pick up in the afternoon.
2. Something funny happened this morning, there was a transaction for DBS entered by a brokerage firm for .27 cents causing STI to drop momentally by 400 points. Wonder how can that happen !
3. Most of my holdings survived the correction today.
SPH -
Continued to decline for the 6 days. The inverted hammer observed yesterday did not kick in. However, it is very clear that today's closing formed a morning star doji. Unless something adverse happen on Monday, this counter should rebound. Just learnt something new today from CNA. A forumer said SPH is being controlled by the warrant issuer. So unless the warrant expired, SPH will continue to go sideway.
ST Engineering -
Morning star doji spotted. Mondy should rebound from the weak closing today.
Wheelock -
Good closing at 3.28 today. Hopefully Parabolic SAR will hit daily price by early next week.
Tai Sin -
Apparently, .505 was not the bottom. May need to pick up more at support level of .43. But spining doji at star position was spotted today so Monday may rebound.
Stock to watch:Aztech - buy when it hits .45UOL - buy when it hits 4.85Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 5/24
STI : 3,530.26 ( -28.75 )STI -
1. I always don't mind a mild retrace once a while. The pull back today is anticipated after 4 days of moving up. Despite the dip today which was only -28.75, my portfolio was blood shed.
2. No transaction for today, hibernating !
3. Tomorrow should be another down day, or at least the morning will be down and then afternoon come back up to close flat.
My Portfolio -
SPH - After 5 consecutive days of closing lower, an inverted hammer candlestick was formed in the star position with today's closing. I trust the price will be rebonded tomorrow. However, most of the TA indicators are showing SPH in the bearish zone. The daily prices have broker the 50 days MA and trendline. Chaikin money flow is in distribution mode. RSI, WM%R are all pointing down. The only consolation is the upper band of Parabolic SAR has hit the daily prices. I wonder why there isn't a strong rebond yet !?
News: not sure is the news about Paragon revaluation is real.
Target to sell this at 4.7.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 5/23
STI : 3,559.01 ( +19.19 )
1. CSC: Exited this counter with a small loss ( 30 lots bought at .38, sold at .375 ). This is a good learning experience for me with a small "tution fee". Lesson learnt:
1. speculative play is not my cup of tea.
2. go the opposite with the crowd, move ahead of them, when they are in, we should be out.
It is very difficult to chase the prices of the top volume counter where the spread is only 2 cents. Anyway, the loss could have been avoided, Charles was more excited than me. When he saw the price start to move, he cut loss immediately ( too early ) before the BB moved in to send the price higher. Don't think I will go for speculative play anymore. Will stay on for technical buy.
Anyway, for learning purpose, posting the chart here:
2. Collected 10 lots of "Tai Sin" at 0.505.3. Wheelock, good call from Charles ! Went up 10 cents since I entered to 3.3 today.Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 5/22
STI : 3,539.82 (+25.33)1. As expected, CSC was the most actively traded counter with top volume of 212 million for the day. It gaps up 4.5 cents to open at .38. Unfortunately, the spread was very tight. It was trading between .37 and .39. Most of the day, it hovers around .375 and .38... very hard to do contra play.
2. Moved in at .38 for 30 lots !! With the closing price of .375, stand to lose $150 plus brokerage fee. Hope tomorrow can do better !!
3. Instructed Charles to load 10 lots of Tai Sin tomorrow, probably at .505.
Kelive Reserach 16/4 - TP .69,
CIMB 27/4 - TP .96
4. Aztech - posted this yesterday in CNA Market talk and today this counter began to move:
Aztech is ready for another round of rally. After about two weeks of consolidation, MACD 26d/12d line is showing sign to cross up the 9d signal line. Histrogram is moving toward the +ve zone. RSI has rebounded from the oversold advancing toward the centerline. WM%R is about to cross the centerline. Daily price will hit the upper band of Parabolic SAR anytime now. Aztech should retest the previous high of .52 in the coming days/week.
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 5/21
STI : 3,514.49 ( +2.09 )1. Sold UOL in the morning at 5.25 out of fear. China raised interest rate over the weekend. Was worry this may spark off a new round of sell down but it did not happen. 2. CSC secured $240 million of IR contract. This will definitely be top volume counter tomorrow. Sigh, YN may also up tomorrow.Labels: Trading Digest
Aztech
Aztech is ready for another round of rally. After about two weeks of consolidation, MACD 26d/12d line is showing sign to cross up the 9d signal line. Histrogram is moving toward the +ve zone. RSI has rebounded from the oversold advancing toward the centerline. WM%R is about to cross the centerline. Daily price will hit the upper band of Parabolic SAR anytime now. Aztech should retest the previous high of .52 in the coming days/week.Labels: Stock Pick
Target Prices
SPH
- DBSV, April 13, 2007, 12 months TP $5.25
- OCBC, April 13. 2007, Fair value = $4.6
ST Engineering
- DBSV, May 3, 2007, 12 months TP $4.2AdvSCT:Fair value for this counter : $.95Kim Eng 3/29/07:Smelter is set and ready. We recently visited Advance SCT's newly acquired copper smelter plant in Malaysia.The plant is equipped with two furnaces. One furnace has started commercial production ahead of schedule, while the second furnace is being completed. When the second furnace is operational later in the year, this smelter plant will have a capacity of 5,000 tonnes per month. Advance SCT will then have the capability to produce 8-mmand 3-mm copper coils. This would boost earnings, going forward. We raise our earnings forecast and arrive at a 12-month target price of S$1.60. Maintain BUY.Labels: Target Price
Trading Digest 5/18
STI : 3,512.4 ( -13.11 )1. Glad to see STI eased a little bit today. This is the only way to delay the anticipated correction.2. Liquidated 25 lots of Yongnam at .365 today. Queue to sell UOL and part of SPH but did not take place.3. Added 5 lots of Wheelock at 3.2 on broker call. Agreed Wheelock may have bottomed and bullish reversal is in sight. Forumers are speculating a target of 4.4. Ace Achieve, sigh, after letting it go on Wednesay, this counter suddenly move today on news of securing a $100 million 3G contract. 5. UOL, SPH are both bullish. AdvSCT and ST Engineering are not far. Hope to have at least one more week of peace ( market do not crash ). These four counters should give reasonable yield. The biggest disappointment are still Longcheer & EnviroHub.Labels: Trading Digest
UOL
UOL is currently in the bullish zone. Daily prices for the past four days were all above the upper band of Bollinger Band. 26D/12D MACD line is crossing up the 9D signal line. MACD Histrogram is in the positive zone. Both are strong indication of bullishness. RSI and WM%R are trending up. The upper band of Parabolic SAR has hit the daily price today. UOL is all set to test the resistance of $5.5. Breakout may ocur if it is able to penetrate the resistance line.Market sentiment is a major concern which may affect the performance of this counter. Observation has been made on the candlestick of a "Dragon fly doji" for today. Tomorrow's closing price is very important to note as it may serve as a confirmation of bullish reversal or perhaps it is a false signal. Labels: Stock Pick
Trading Digest 5/17
STI : 3,525.51 (+24.34)1. All the indices are getting very high, so high to cause serious concern.2. Decided to heed advice from various sources to liquidate the profitable positions. Some of the counters like UOL, ST Engineering are begining to be bullish but I think better safe than sorry. Making lesses is better than holding on to posion balls. Can always re-enter again.3. Queuing to seel 6 lots of SPH at 4.62, 2 lots of UOL at 5.5, 25 lots of Yongnam at .365. Not very good prices but really very worry about the market will crash.Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest 5/16
STI : 3,501.17 ( +26.09 )1. Sold Ace Achieve today at .145 ( 10 lots ). This counter was bought based on "tip" from CNA forum. I have decided that it is unwise. From the chart, it does not look bullish at least for the near term. To hold, I worry about another round of melt down. Together with the "Amara", I have liquidated two counters within a week reducing my holding.2. UOL looks bullish. Waiting for upper band of Parabolic SAR to hit the dialy price. I am hoping it will hit $5.5 in the near term. Queuing to sell at $5.5 anyway. Latest trading strategy is to move in out out the counter and not to hang on to it.3. Queuing to buy 15 lots of YN at .33. But perhaps Aztech is a better choice.4. TechOil&Gas closed at .825 today with a "hammer", think tomorrow should rebound.5. Lesson learnt : Don't buy too small quantity and spread over too many counters. Should stay focus with fewer counters, higher lot size.Labels: Trading Digest
Yongnam
1. Yongnam dips due to placement of 120 million shares at .33. Bought 5 lots under my own account at .345. Regretted because it is not viable to hold such low quantity. Queue to buy another 15 lots tomorrow at .33. 2. Charles' call yesterday to buy TechOil&Gas at .88. Let's see.Labels: Stock Pick
MACD
MACD is one of the most popular and reliable technical indicators. Developed by Gerald Appel, it is based on the difference of two exponential moving averages (typically 12 & 26 days ) that form the MACD line and a separate 9 days EMA as the Signal Line. MACD is both a trend following tool and a momentum indicator that shows acceleration and deceleration of a trend. Primary interpretation assumes that breaking the signal line by MACD from below represents a "buy" signal, whereas crossing from above a sell signal. Breaking of the balance level ("0") is considered as confirmation of the signals. Weekly MACD should be looked to as describing the trend of the stock from a "trading perspective." Daily MACD should be used as the catalyst to enter and exit positions. One limitation of MACD is that it works very poorly during periods of price consolidation. When MACD begins to generate numerous trading signals back and forth in a short period of time, its buy and sell advice should be ignored.
Trading Strategy: ==> When MACD value is positive, it is a bullish signal, and a negative MACD value is a bearish signal. ==> When the MACD is making new highs or lows, and the price is not also making new highs and lows, it signals a possible trend reversal. This type of interpretation is often verified with an overbought/oversold oscillator.
==> Go Long when MACD Histrogram turns green bar after at least 4 red bars & both MACD & Signal Line are above zero.
==> Go Short when MACD Histrogram turns red after at least 4 green bars & both MACD & Signal Line are below zero.
Labels: TA Indicators
RSI
RSI is a momentum indicator developed by J Welles Wilder. It is a powerful indicator used to measure the rate of change of the price movement. When the RSI curve moves above its overbought or below its oversold level, it signals the stock under consideration is ripe for a turn. However, overbought or oversold present only the "probabilities". It is not the actual buy and sell signals.
RSI work better in range-bound market than in trending market. This is because RSI being an oscillator that oscillate between 0 - 100 will stay high in up trending market as there are consistently more days where prices go up as compared to prices go down. Conversely, in a down trending market, RSI will stay at the low values. Using the same value of 70 as overbought level and 30 as oversold level will mostly result in wrong signal such as entering and exiting too early or no signal. To overcome this, moving upward the overbought and oversold level to 80 and 40 respectively help in an uptrending market. Similiarly, moving downward the overbought and oversold level to 60 and 20 respectively will help in a down-trending market.
To trade solely based on RSI is not sufficient. Other technical indicators such as MACD, Candlestick formation and trendline ...etc. are often added to the trading strategy to determine buy and sell signal whereas RSI serves as confirmation of signal to increase accuracy. Application:
Buy Signal
Buy near support of the underlying stock while RSI is in the oversold condition.
Divergences
Buy and sell signals can also be generated by looking for positive and negative divergences between the RSI and the underlying stock.
Centerline Crossover
The centerline for RSI is 50. Readings above and below can give the indicator a bullish or bearish tilt. On the whole, a reading above 50 indicates that average gains are higher than average losses and a reading below 50 indicates that losses are winning the battle. Some traders look for a move above 50 to confirm bullish signals or a move below 50 to confirm bearish signals.
Labels: TA Indicators
